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000
FXUS64 KLCH 210920
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
420 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Area radars show scattered convection across southern LA into the
coastal waters, with some of the more robust convection noted
over and south of the eastern coastal waters zones. Further north
and west, patchy light to moderate rain continues to move east,
and has been showing a diminishing trend over the past hour or so.
All of this activity is associated with a shortwave wave trough
that is currently crossing the area aloft.

At the surface, a couple of frontal boundaries are also situated
across the area, providing some additional forcing in the lower
levels. The first of these is currently located just off the
coast, and was quite noticeable yesterday evening as gusty N-NE
winds developed and much cooler temperatures moved into the area.
A brief lull in winds and even low clouds has become apparent in
surface obs across the local area, and LAPS analysis and CAM
guidance show a secondary boundary situated from roughly
Marksville to just west of Beaumont moving southeast. This
boundary should be near or off the coast by 12Z, reinforcing the
gusty northerly winds and returning low cigs back across the area.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Rain chances are expected to diminish early this morning, with
PoPs expected to fall to less than 10% areawide by early this
afternoon as the trough moves east of the lower MS Valley. Behind
this disturbance, a northern stream shortwave digging southeast
will reinforce dry northwesterly flow aloft while ushering cool
high pressure toward the region. The tight pressure gradient will
produce brisk N-NE winds today. While winds will be quite gusty,
sustained speeds should remain below advisory criteria although
winds could briefly flirt with the 20 MPH threshold along and
south of I-10 this afternoon. Cloudy skies will persist through
the morning, but should begin thinning and scattering through the
afternoon. Even for those lucky enough to see some sun this
afternoon, strong CAA will limit heating and keep high
temperatures in the middle to upper 60s across all but the
immediate coast. As skies clear and the surface high settles
across AR tonight, some of the coolest temperatures of the
forecast period are expected tonight, with lows falling to near 40
degrees across central LA, and to around 50 degrees along the
I-10 corridor.

Pleasant conditions are expected through the remainder of the
short term period as high pressure prevails across the region.
Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures should rebound back into
the lower 70s across much of the area Monday. Below normal
temperatures are expected again Monday night, with temperatures
trending more seasonal Tuesday afternoon as the surface high moves
east.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Warmer temperatures and humid days will be the main weather features
for the rest of the week. High pressure off the east coast will keep
winds onshore. Slight ridging from the high pressure will extend
across central LA, leading to mostly clear skies and light winds. On
Wednesday and Thursday, we could have diurnal driven showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. But the chances will be low as the
ridging may be too strong for showers to form.

Near the end of the week, a frontal boundary will swing south,
stalling somewhere in central or northern Louisiana. While this
system won`t bring much precipitation to our SW LA or SE TX, cloud
coverage will increase with overcast skies starting Friday and into
the weekend. As the front stalls, our pressure gradient will
increase, with models showing winds rising to close to advisory
levels both inland and offshore. Models currently show winds peaking
around Sunday, but being so far out, there is not a lot of
confidence in exact wind speed ranges. Temperatures will be fairly
close to normal for the remainder of the week, with highs steadily
rising into the weekend. We expect highs to be in the mid-80s,
reaching the upper 80s by Friday, with some locations in central
Louisiana and Texas having a good chance to break 90 degrees. Lows
will be elevated as well, with overnight temperatures only dropping
to the mid-70s. 

14/Slaughter

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Scattered light to moderate rainfall will continue to spread
across the region as we head into the overnight hours. As we near
midnight convection is expected to become more organized and
should move through the region in a generally NW to SE pattern
overnight, with rain coming to an end west to east tomorrow
morning. This convection will be accompanied by reductions in VIS
and ceilings ranging from MVFR to LIFR. Post convection, ceilings
should becoming MVFR area-wide before eventually lifting to VFR
near the end of the period. Gusty winds will also be possible with
and after this convection tonight and tomorrow.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Small craft advisories are in effect today through early Monday as
strong and gusty offshore flow and very rough seas continue to
develop over the coastal waters. Showers and storms associated
with a disturbance aloft and a cold front across the area will
gradually end from west to east by mid afternoon.

Winds will shift more northeasterly through early Monday, and
should diminish by early afternoon. Onshore flow will redevelop
by Tuesday as surface high pressure moves over the eastern
seaboard, with southerly winds expected to continue through the
week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  42  69  42 /  20   0   0   0
LCH  69  48  71  50 /  20   0   0   0
LFT  70  49  72  50 /  30   0   0   0
BPT  70  50  74  54 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Monday for GMZ450-452-470-
     472.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to noon CDT Monday
     for GMZ455-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...17