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000
FXUS64 KLIX 160458
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1158 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Upper ridging axis curves from the northern plains, through
the central midwest, and into the northwest gulf. A low pressure
sink is centered just north of the four-corners. Surface high
pressure over the western Atlantic extends into the western Gulf
and southern States. As we move through the short term, the low
moves over the upper midwest trailing a frontal boundary that
should be maturing but forced by the high pressure over the Gulf to
sit north of us by the end of the short term.

We will see pleasant temperatures and dry weather, although a high
cirrus canopy predominates the sky. Mild Winds will be out of the
southeast to south building to 15mph by the end of the short
term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

As we move into and through the long term, the upper low continues
to the northeast and breaks down by late in the week. The
attendant front stays north of us leaving an early season
zonal pattern maintaining warmer that normal temperatures at the
end of the week. (NBM guidance actually has near record highs in
Baton Rouge, which just doesn`t seem likely so dropped the high
temp grid slightly on Friday.) At the very end of the period a
weak shortwave trough brings some moisture and possibility of
rain into the area. Chances look better on Sunday at this time,
but do exist on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

No major changes in thinking from the previous forecast package. A
decent inversion layer has started to form over the past hour with
IFR ceilings already in place at MCB. Continued deepening of the
inversion will lead to LIFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities of
around 3 miles. At ASD, HDC, MSY, NEW, and GPT, an extensive low
stratus deck ranging from 500 to 800 feet is expected to develop
beneath the elevated inversion layer during the same general time
frame as MCB. Stronger winds at BTR and HUM will keep ceilings
higher and in MVFR range at around 1500 to 2000 feet between 10z
and 14z. After 14z, warming temperature will mix out the inversion
layer, and a return to prevailing VFR conditons is expected.
Southerly winds will also turn more gusty by the end of the
forecast period with sustained winds near 15 knots possible.
After 00z, another inversion will start to form and have MVFR
ceilings returning by 03z at several of the terminals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Conditions look favorable for another inversion to develop just
above the surface after 06z. This inversion will reach peak
intensity by 10z, and some boundary layer decoupling is expected
to take hold by this point. The inversion will once again be
strongest at MCB, and have previaling LIFR ceilings of 300 feet in
place. Given the stronger boundary layer flow, visibilities should
remain in the 1 to 3 mile range between 10z and 14z. At ASD, HDC,
MSY, NEW, and GPT, an extensive low stratus deck ranging from 500
to 800 feet is expected to develop beneath the elevated
inversion layer during the same general time frame as MCB.
Stronger winds at BTR and HUM will keep ceilings higher and in
MVFR range at around 1500 to 2000 feet between 10z and 14z. After
14z, warming temperature will mix out the inversion layer, and a
return to prevailing VFR conditons is expected. Southerly winds
will also turn more gusty by the end of the forecast period with
sustained winds near 15 knots possible. PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Marine conditions will be relatively quiet with winds out of the
southeast to south. A short Small Craft Exercise Caution headline
is in place for late tonight into early morning highlighting the
likelihood of winds just above 15kt in the southwestern offshore
marine zones. Another short period of elevated winds early
Wednesday morning may require the SCEC, also.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  81  65  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  67  86  70  86 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  65  81  68  84 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  68  82  70  84 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  65  78  67  80 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  62  80  65  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...DS