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000
FXUS64 KLIX 200031
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
731 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A fairly broad upper level trough is currently moving east through
the Great Lakes. The southern side of this feature is relatively
flat at this time which is why the associated cold front is
struggling to make southward progression. Model soundings show low
dewpoint depressions around 500mb and near the surface. That points
to continued high level clouds and possibly patchy fog over SELA and
southern MS. So should expect another anomalously warm night.
Saturday will be similar to today as the trough continues east of
the Great Lakes with the base of the trough still quite flat without
much southward movement. The cold front will be basically crawling
south into the CWA Saturday. Post frontal showers with maybe a storm
or 2 will drift south into the northern half of the local area.
Highs will be limited by slightly cooler air north of the boundary
and clouds to the south of it. So a bit more challenging and higher
probability of being too cool or warm for forecast highs in the
CWA.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Models show a shortwave on the backside of the northern trough
moving on a much farther south trajectory, passing through the mid
to lower Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon. This is what`ll be
needed to finally drive a cold front completely through the CWA on
Sunday morning. Ample moisture in place with lift from the front
will be a good setup for increasing showers. Model soundings today
compared to previous days show much less instability anywhere
through the column. Thus, thinking it`ll be fairly tough for much
thunder to develop and therefore now only have isolated
thunderstorms in the zone forecasts. Overall QPF shouldn`t be
impactful generally speaking with areal amounts under an inch.
Coverage forecast of 80% could still be too low.

This cold front won`t be particularly strong being that a shortwave
it driving it, so only looking at a day of below normal temps with
moderating conditions quickly returning as well as above normal
temps Tuesday onward. Precip forecast next week continues to be on
the lower end of confidence as models not doing a great job of
resolving weaker troughs that may pass through the midsection of the
country. So will just be going with deterministic NBM POPs which with
the latest forecast package is on the drier side.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Should see mostly VFR CIGs continue until after midnight tonight.
MVFR to IFR CIGs move in after midnight with pockets of light fog
possible. Patchy fog approaching 2-3 SM will be possible at
terminals, especially MCB and HUM. CIG/VIS will gradually lift
after sunrise with most terminals in MVFR to VFR by 1800 UTC.
Scattered showers will be possible later in the morning with VCSH
denoting this possibility.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A surface high pressure is centered in the western Atlantic and
extending across the Gulf of Mexico. The western periphery of this
ridge is being broken down by approaching surface trough to the north
of the area. That`ll result in a weakening of onshore flow with most
of the coastal waters becoming light and variable tonight. Current
global model runs indicate that a cold front will move through the
coast waters Sunday morning. Cold air advection won`t be
particularly strong with this boundary and thus likely only looking
at about 12 to 18 hours of Exercise Caution to low-end Small Craft
conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  78  52  60 /  10  50  70  70
BTR  71  85  60  66 /  10  20  60  60
ASD  68  84  59  68 /   0  20  50  80
MSY  71  84  64  68 /   0  10  50  80
GPT  68  82  60  68 /   0  20  30  80
PQL  67  84  60  70 /   0  20  20  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...ME