Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 271710
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1210 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

While yesterday morning`s shortwave was moving northeastward
through the Great Lakes this morning, the longwave trough axis
remains to our west, over west Texas. Surface high pressure was
centered over Nebraska and the Dakotas this morning. Temperatures
were generally in the 50s this morning away from areas very close
to the warmer water temperatures.

The longwave trough will progress eastward over the next 36 hours
and be near the Atlantic Coast Thursday evening. The main impact
this trough will have is to produce a period of clouds this
afternoon and evening based near 600 mb, which will generally be
between 10K and 15K feet. This may hold high temperatures short of
their maximum potential today, but I don`t feel it will be quite
as cool as the MET numbers would indicate. Once the clouds
associated with the trough move away later this evening, the
weather for tonight and Thursday looks pretty nice, albeit a bit
on the cool side. Generally kept to a ECMWF/GFS operational
compromise on max/min values. One adjustment that was made, was to
run daytime dew points closer to the NBM 10th percentile both
today and tomorrow, closer to the GFS/MAV dew points. That pulls
afternoon minimum humidities into the 30 to 40 percent range this
afternoon, and into the 20s on Thursday. This could have some fire
weather impacts, especially tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

With the departure of the longwave trough to the east on Thursday,
an upper ridge will move slowly across the area over the weekend
and into early next week. Troughing near the Pacific Coast the
next few days will move into west Texas next Tuesday. That should
keep the weather dry through at least next Monday. A cold front
will move into the area next Tuesday or Wednesday, which will
bring the next chance of rain to the area. Way too early to become
hung up on the highlights at this time.

After a chilly start Friday morning with most of the area in the
40s, temperatures will moderate quickly, with above normal
readings common through the weekend into early next week. The
warmest day is likely to be Monday, when most of the area could
get into lower and middle 80s...and potentially upper 80s in a few
spots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist
through the forecast period at all area airports. Wind shifts of
greater than 30 degrees will be likely tomorrow morning at all
area airports. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Will continue Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines across all
waters this morning and upper waters in the afternoon. These will
likely get extended through the overnight areas in some area. May
be some brief periods beyond tonight where Exercise Caution
headlines may be needed, but don`t see any significant stretches
of Small Craft Advisory level conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  69  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  45  73  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  46  73  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  52  72  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  47  73  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  46  74  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...RW


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