Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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166 FXUS64 KLUB 062322 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 622 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The upper closed low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains tonight with 80 to 100 knot 250mb winds and 50 to 70 knot 500mb westerlies overhead. The Pacific front will be east of the forecast area by this evening with a weak surface cold front passing south through the area overnight. Shallow CAA with clear skies and radiational cooling will bring near normal low temperatures tomorrow morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Tomorrow, the nearly stationary upper low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will develop across southeast Colorado, but the dryline will remain well east of the forecast area with continued warm, dry and breezy conditions. Southwest winds will pick up through the afternoon hours with the strengthening surface low and increased pressure gradients across the area. Downsloping winds will give way to warming temperatures into the 80s and potentially lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Broad upper level troughing will continue over most of the northern CONUS through the midweek period with flow aloft remaining zonal over West Texas. In general this will result in a stretch of relatively quiet weather days during the middle to late week period given a stubbornly dry airmass remaining in place locally. After one more warm day on Wednesday, high temperatures will fall a few degrees below normal as a backdoor cool front passes through the region early Thursday morning. Surface flow is progged to retain an easterly upslope component through at least Friday which will allow relatively cool temperatures to continue, but given the continuing lack of notable surface or deep-layer moisture no precipitation is expected through Friday. The upper air pattern becomes a bit more interesting this weekend as most model solutions depict a cutoff low developing near the Four Corners and eventually drifting over our region. Typical model spread exists at this lead time regarding how quickly the upper low shifts eastward which makes any specific details regarding precipitation timing or coverage very uncertain. However, enough ensemble consensus is present to maintain low mentionable PoPs over most of the forecast area this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Surface winds will slowly diminish around sunset before ramping back up again late tomorrow morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon across the Caprock. With the dryline well to the east of the area, dry air will remain in place with minimum relative humidity values as low as 6 to 10 percent. Breezy southwest winds will ramp up through the afternoon hours to around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop once again on Wednesday afternoon, mainly over the far southwest Texas Panhandle. West winds of 15 to 25 mph and minimum RH values near or just below 10 percent are expected in this area. Elsewhere, winds are currently expected to be weak enough on Wednesday to mitigate any significant fire concerns. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023- 027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...58