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000
FXUS64 KLZK 150735
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
235 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Calm conditions are ongoing across the area again this
morning...with less wind ongoing compared to last night. SRLY winds
will continue again today and for Tue...with moisture levels
continuing to increase across the region. Increased cloud cover
will be seen today as a result...and with a weak upper disturbance
lifting NE over the state this afternoon...some potential for light
rain or isolated SHRA could be seen for WRN/SWRN sections.

POPs will decrease some late tonight...but start increasing again
Tue morning from the west as any left over convection from OK moves
east into AR. POPs ramp up for the afternoon hrs as the dryline to
the west in OK pushes east towards AR. The main shortwave energy
looks to pass north of the state Tue afternoon/evening...and the
dryline will then stall/shift back west about the same time. Forcing
for convection looks limited as a result...so have limited POPs to
likely or lower as a result. Coverage of convection looks to be more
isolated given the lack of forcing...and with warm/very dry mid-
level air...and limited forecast instability due to ample cloud
cover. However...low level moisture levels will be ample for
convective activity...and SHR will be impressive. If activity
develops...it will have the potential to become strong to SVR...with
all hazards possible. However...coverage looks limited at this time.
QPF also looks limited for these same reasons.

The short term will then end on a quieter note...with POPs
decreasing by late Tue night. However...SW flow aloft and with the
cold front remaining W/NW of AR...chances for convection will return
in the long term period as a new system moves across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A cold front will be in the process of sweeping across the state on
Wednesday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should still
be ongoing, pushing into portions of far S and far SE AR ahead of
this front, mainly during the AM hours.

Long term deterministic guidance suggest the front will hang up and
pivot/reorient over the Srn third of the state before lifting back
to the N as a warm front on Thursday. At the same time, a decaying
lee cyclone will eject from the Rockies, moving SEwrd towards the
state, linking up with the Nwrd moving warm front. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected once again across AR on Thursday, into
Friday, and linger into Saturday morning before a strong cold front
and associated surface low moves across the region. For now,
confidence in severe weather is low. NBM guidance is struggling with
precipitation exiting the region in a timely fashion. Current
thinking is PoPs will come to an end Saturday morning vs later in
the day on Sunday.

Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will well above
climatological averages with readings topping out in the 80s with
lows starting out in the 50s and 60s. By Friday, temperatures should
be in a transitory state, with highs in the mid 60s over NW AR to
mid 80s over SE AR. Late in the period, highs are anticipated to be
in the upper 50s to near 70 with lows in the 40s and 50s as strong
high pressure settles into the region from the N.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  66  75  68 /  10  30  70  50
Camden AR         79  65  79  67 /  20  10  50  30
Harrison AR       81  64  77  61 /  10  40  60  10
Hot Springs AR    77  64  75  67 /  30  30  70  30
Little Rock   AR  80  66  77  68 /  20  30  60  40
Monticello AR     79  66  80  69 /  10  10  30  40
Mount Ida AR      76  63  75  66 /  30  40  70  30
Mountain Home AR  83  65  76  64 /  10  30  70  20
Newport AR        83  66  76  68 /  10  20  60  50
Pine Bluff AR     79  65  80  68 /  20  20  50  50
Russellville AR   80  65  77  67 /  20  30  70  20
Searcy AR         81  65  76  67 /  10  20  60  50
Stuttgart AR      79  66  78  68 /  10  20  50  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70