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000
FXUS66 KMFR 171737
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
410 AM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.UPDATE...Updated AVIATION Section

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some clouds across
portions of Lake County and at the border of Jackson and Josephine
Counties in Oregon as well as across the southern border of Modoc
County in California. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are being
observed elsewhere. These clear skies will allow temperatures to
become cold this morning, and a freeze warning is in effect for
portions of the Rogue, Applegate, Sams, and Evans Valleys. This
freeze warning also includes portions of Grants Pass. In addition
to the freezing temperatures, chilly temperatures that could
promote frost formation are expected this morning along the Coos
County Coast, and a frost advisory has been issued. Please see the
NPWMFR for more details.

We will remain under the influence of high pressure for most of
the week. This will bring mostly clear skies in the afternoons
with virtually no chance of rain. After a chilly start to the
mornings, afternoon high temperatures will be relatively warm.
This pattern will repeat for most of the week with temperatures
(both afternoon highs and morning lows) getting warmer each day.

The pattern begins to shift somewhat over the weekend as a weak
front tries to push through the area on Saturday into Saturday
night. This front will likely only bring light precipitation to
the area, and specifically limiting any precipitation to the
coast and portions of Douglas County and into the Cascades north
of highway 140. The more noticeable change will be that
temperatures will be a bit cooler and cloud cover will increase
across southern Oregon and northern California.

Additional weak systems will push through the area with minor
precipitation chances possible early next week. Then in the
far extended forecast, another low looks to approach the Pacific
Northwest. Ensembles are split on the track of the low, but it
appears as if the ensembles are hinting that we may see some
impactful weather. Please stay tuned to the forecast as the
details will ultimately change. -Schaaf

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z TAFs...Other than a few clouds that, so far, are
burning off this afternoon, clear skies are present across the
entire region with VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Gusty north winds up to 30 kt can be expected along the coast
(including North Bend) this afternoon and early this evening.
Occasional gusty north winds (up to 20 kt) are also anticipated at
Roseburg and occasionally in areas east of the Cascades this
afternoon.
-Spilde/CSP

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM Wednesday, April 17, 2024...A thermal
trough will bring strong gusty north winds and steep seas to all
waters today through this evening. Gales and very steep wind driven
seas can be expected south of Cape Blanco. North winds will ease
somewhat overnight into Thursday, but seas remain hazardous to small
craft through Thursday night. The thermal trough weakens by Friday
and conditions will improve. Relatively light winds and low seas
continue into Saturday, but a weak cold front will move through in
the afternoon. Gusty north winds and steep seas are expected to
return later in the weekend. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ021.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ024-026.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$