Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
732 FXUS62 KMLB 011415 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1015 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 The forecast remains on track across east central Florida. Currently, isolated showers and storms continue to develop across the local Atlantic waters, with increasing cloud coverage across the peninsula seen on visible satellite imagery. Temperatures currently in the mid 70s to low 80s will continue to gradually warm across the peninsula into the mid 80s to low 90s this afternoon. As a result of the temperature gradient between the peninsula and the local waters, the east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop this afternoon, pushing inland across the area. Based on current satellite imagery, it appears that the sea breeze may be starting to develop along the Treasure Coast as of 10 AM. Guidance continues to indicate the development of isolated showers and even a stray storm or two along the sea breeze as it moves inland. A collision between the east and west coast sea breezes is then expected to occur across the interior late this afternoon into the evening hours, with the potential for increasing shower and storm coverage. Any storms that do develop may be capable of producing occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 45 mph, and heavy downpours. The models continue to indicate areas near Lake Okeechobee and even just west of Osceola and Okeechobee counties as being the favored places for convection, though shower and storm development along the entire boundary collision cannot be ruled out. Activity will gradually diminish after sunset across east central Florida, with isolated shower and storm development forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 1015 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with light and variable to calm winds this morning becoming easterly along the coast between 10 to 15 knots after 16Z as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Winds becoming easterly around 10 knots across the interior terminals after 18Z. A sea breeze collision is forecast to occur across the interior late this afternoon into the early evening hours, but confidence in shower development near the terminals remains low, so left out VCSH for now. Will reassess with the next package update and add in where necessary. Winds becoming light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 The forecast remains on track. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to be possible across the local Atlantic waters today into tonight. Light and variable winds will become easterly as the east coast sea breeze develops, with winds increasing between 10 to 15 knots. Seas are forecast to remain generally between 2 to 4 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Light and variable winds become easterly around 10-12 mph by the early afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers will advance inland, with the potential for a few lightning storms. Highest coverage of activity will be along the Kissimmee River. Fire sensitive conditions persist this week, with minimum RH values falling below 40% west of Orlando. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 67 84 67 / 20 10 10 0 MCO 90 68 88 68 / 30 20 20 0 MLB 83 69 84 69 / 20 10 20 0 VRB 85 66 85 67 / 20 10 20 0 LEE 90 69 90 68 / 30 20 20 0 SFB 89 68 89 67 / 20 10 10 0 ORL 90 69 89 68 / 30 20 20 0 FPR 85 65 85 67 / 20 10 20 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Tollefsen LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...Tollefsen