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000
FXUS63 KMPX 151954
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
254 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy Tuesday with easterly gusts of 40-50 mph likely,
  potentially higher during showers and thunderstorms

- Widespread rain spreads across the area tomorrow morning, with
  showers and thunderstorms continuing through Wednesday morning

- Below-normal temperatures Friday through Sunday with highs in
  the 40s and 50s expected. Sub-freezing lows are likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The narrow band of showers over the Dakotas & western Minnesota
has mostly dissipated with waning forcing from the LLJ, a few
sprinkles are possible through the afternoon. Otherwise, quiet
conditions are expected through tonight with highs this
afternoon reaching the low to mid 60s across central Minnesota &
western Wisconsin to the mid 70s across southern Minnesota.

The forecast remains on track for a widespread soaking rain
event beginning tomorrow morning & continuing through Wednesday
morning, as a low-990s mb low move through the area along the
MN/IA border. High-resolution models show the rain coming as
multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms, with the first
round spreading north out of Iowa early tomorrow morning. The
heaviest rain, and highest chance for thunderstorms, comes
Tuesday afternoon through the evening, as convection-allowing
models depict a more organized line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms ahead of the occluding warm front. The rain will
end for a few hours after this line of showers and thunderstorms
moves through and the dry slot moves over the region. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will then redevelop overnight &
continue through Wednesday morning as the wrap-around region of
the low moves over the area and eventually exits to the east
Wednesday afternoon. Guidance consensus continues to show high
probabilities of 1-2" of rain across the area, with better
chances for closer to 2" across far- southern Minnesota.
Isolated amounts around 3" are possible wherever multiple rounds
of thunderstorms impact the same area.

Very gusty easterly winds will also develop Wednesday morning
in response to the tightening pressure gradient ahead of the
approaching low. Forecast soundings depict a low-level jet in
excess of 60 kts developing Monday morning ahead of the low,
with forecast soundings easily supporting gusts of 35-45 mph at
the top of the mixing channel. It is likely that even stronger
gusts will mix down during any showers and thunderstorms that
are able to tap into the stronger LLJ, so would not be surprised
to see peak gusts over 50 mph across the area. Will issue a Wind
Advisory to highlight the likelihood of gusts over 40 mph, as
well as highlighting the potential for sporadic stronger gusts
over 50 mph during the strongest showers and thunderstorms. The
winds will diminish Tuesday evening as the pressure gradient
slackens with the surface low moving over the region. Breezy
northwest winds then develop Wednesday on the back side of the
low, but wind gusts Wednesday will likely be limited to 30-35
mph.

Colder air builds into the region behind the midweek system as
a sprawling region of Canadian high pressure builds into the
central CONUS through the weekend. Daytime temperatures will
likely be between 10-15 degrees below normal with highs in the
40s expected. Meanwhile, freezing temperatures are looking more
likely for the entire area (outside of the inner Twin Cities
metro) Friday-Sunday mornings, which could damage any new and
blossoming vegetation. Below-normal temperatures continue
through the weekend, with a gradual warming to more normal
temperatures by Tuesday. Isolated diurnal rain showers are
possible over the weekend with the cold air aloft, but no
appreciable rainfall is expected going into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR through tonight with SCT/BKN mid-level clouds and easterly
winds gusting around 20 kts. Widespread showers coming out of
Iowa will overspread the area from south to north during the
morning. MVFR visibility and ceilings are most likely during the
rain, but IFR conditions are possible during the heaviest
showers. Isolated thunderstorms embedded within the showers are
also expected, although confidence in their coverage is low at
the moment. Used a PROB30 mention to convey the thunderstorm
potential for now. Very gusty winds will lead to wind shear
issues overnight, with easterly gusts of 30-40 kts likely
developing by the end of the period. Sporadic gusts up to 50 kts
are possible during any rain showers.

KMSP...Southeasterly wind shear of 45-50 kts is expected to
develop below FL020 overnight. These strong winds will mix down
to the surface by late morning with east/southeasterly gusts of
30-40 kts expected. Rain showers will move in during the
morning, most likely between 8-10 AM, and continue on and off into
the evening. Sporadic gusts up to 50 kts can`t be ruled out
during the strongest rain showers. A few thunderstorms will
likely be embedded within the showers, with the thunder threat
looking slightly more likely during the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...AM -RA & MVFR/IFR. Wind NW 20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Martin-
     Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...ETA