286
FNUS73 KMPX 011405
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Lake Venus WMA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
905 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 CDT on May 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Beyer Rx Burn, mostly sunny skies are
expected with temperatures in the mid 60s. West winds will be a
bit breezy this morning before gradually diminishing and turning
more northwest by late afternoon. RH values will fall to around
30-35%.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................47 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 14 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /82700 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /82700 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  61  62  62  61  61  59  56  54  53  52  51
RH..............47  42  39  39  42  42  49  57  61  64  66  71
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..14  13  10  9   5   2   6   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.22  20  17  14  10  7   7   7   9   9   12  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 4.9 5.4 4.9 4.0 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  N   SE  S   SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.21  18  16  13  8   6   6   5   8   9   10  10
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
                    after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southeast 6 to 10
                    mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (27700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 8 mph shifting to the north
                    around 6 mph early in the evening, then
                    shifting to the southeast 5 to 14 mph in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning, then rain showers likely
                    late in the morning. Chance of rain showers in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 53.
RH..................Min 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 12 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (43500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 14 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Matt Mecklenburg
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412912.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matt.mecklenburg@state.mn.us