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000
FXUS64 KMRX 240514
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
114 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

One change that was made this evening is an increase in PoPs by
Wednesday morning. This is based on radar trends near the Ohio
River ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, in addition to the
high-res model guidance. Also, there is more cloud cover than
previously forecast, which has led to an increase in the sky
forecast. This has also promoted milder temperatures this evening
by a reduction in radiational cooling. Overall low temperatures
were kept largely the same with minimal other changes made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Key Messages:

1. The higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains will see
gusts up to 30 or 35 mph late this afternoon through tomorrow
morning.

2. A weak cold front will bring increasing chances of rain
late tonight through Wednesday morning. Only light rain is
expected before becoming mostly dry for Wednesday afternoon.

Discussion:

Breezy southwesterly winds will subside around sunset. The higher
elevations of the East Tennessee mountains will see gusts up to 30
or 35 mph late this afternoon through tomorrow morning when the
front moves through.

In the upper levels, a trough is over the Eastern U.S. and a
ridge is over the Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front will
move through the region tomorrow morning. Rain chances increase
late tonight through the morning hours as the front approaches.
The front is decaying as it moves through the region, so the best
rain chances are north of I-40. Rain will be light and QPF is low,
under a quarter of an inch. Light rain and clouds will move out of
the region in the late morning/early afternoon hours. With
afternoon sunshine, highs will get into the lower 70s for most of
the Tennessee Valley tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Key Messages:

1. Mostly dry and warm conditions forecasted into the weekend.

2. A chance of showers and thunderstorms return early next week.

Discussion:

Generally quiet weather can be expected for several days as we sit
under upper level and surface level ridging into the weekend. This
will keep most of the synoptic level forcing and associated
precipitation well off to our west, and mainly dry and sunny
conditions for most of the forecast.

Friday could see a quick round of showers as a strengthening low
level jet moves into the region helping to create an area of
isentropic lift as a weak boundary moves through the region. This
feature is expected to be pretty weak and models are struggling to
resolve how much coverage of showers we can expect. However most
models are in good agreement that whatever occurs would be generally
light to moderate showers during the daytime on Friday. Will
continue with the lower end precipitation chances for the end of the
work week.

Ridging restrengthens over the weekend leading to fairly mild
temperatures. The synoptic pattern looks like it will finally
undergo a change early next week as a front moves through the
OHio/Tennessee Valleys driven by a low lifting out through the
northern plains and Great Lakes region. This system looks to bring
along with it a more unstable atmosphere and we should see the
return of thunderstorms to the region Monday and/or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Included mention of LLWS at all three sites through the early
morning hours given the development of 30-40kt WSW flow at
925-850mb. The chance for rain showers increases as LLWS improves
early morning, with low VFR clouds expected. Low chance of MVFR
cigs but have not included any predominant mention at this time.
Will continue to monitor upstream obs and make amendments if
needed. This afternoon winds will generally remain 10kts or less
and veer to the WNW/NW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             76  50  78  56 /  10   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  47  75  53 /  40   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       74  47  76  52 /  30   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  42  71  48 /  80   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
AVIATION...KRS