254
FXUS66 KMTR 060415 AAC
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
915 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Conditions clearing out today in the wake of yesterday`s front.
Cool weather to kick off the week, but a notable warm up is on the
way for the latter half of the week into this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

The inherited forecast appears to be in good shape with no
changes needed to the forecast. Across land areas, a thin veil of
cirrus will invade from the northwest, with some pockets of marine
stratus likely to slip ashore across coastal Marin and Sonoma
counties after midnight. While recent rainfall and relatively
clearer skies would normally support a radiation fog potential,
the increased 925mb flow of 15 to 20 knots will likely curtail
this threat-- though it cannot be completely discounted where low
level winds subside and/or near interior rivers/reservoirs/lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Visible satellite showing ample clearing across much of the area
in the wake of the cold front yesterday. Some isolated cumulus
continue to form over complex terrain areas as a result of
daytime heating and a hint of lingering low level instability.
However, don`t expect much in the way of additional precip in
these areas. There is still a bit of a hindrance in the form of
some capping stability in the low to mid levels. Some areas in the
highest peaks of the Santa Lucia and Santa Cruz Mtns can`t rule
out a sprinkle or two this afternoon, but anything outside of that
seems to be a very low chance. The weather remains quiet into
Monday with clear and dry conditions. Overnight temperatures into
Monday morning will be on the chilly side once again, similar to
last night, but we will warm up from here.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Beyond Monday, the pattern shifts to become dominated by a
longwave ridge settling in over the Western US. The region will
remain dry through the rest of the week with temperatures
gradually heating up into the weekend. As it stands, Thursday and
Friday look to be the warmest as afternoon highs are forecast to
rise into the mid-80s across inland valleys and 70s elsewhere.
Once again, with temps above seasonal averages by the end of the
week and coming off the heels of an anomalously cold system, it is
important to remind ourselves that these quick changes in
temperatures can still result in heat-related illness, even with
highs in the 80s. As a result, much of our area below about 3500
feet and off the immediate coast will be under a minor Heat Risk
Wednesday into the weekend. This primarily affects individuals who
are extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without
effective means of cooling or adequate hydration.

In the longer term, any chance for rain is dismal as we inch
closer to our typical summertime pattern, and a there is a slight
chance that above normal temperatures persist into the following
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR through the TAF period for all terminals, with the biggest
concern will be the winds. Post frontal W/NW winds remain breezy
and gusty and will slowly diminish for most terminals tonight and
rebuild to moderate to relatively breezy towards late Monday
morning early afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds remain
gusty and breezy with >30 knot winds, but little to no concerns for
AWW at the moment. Winds will becoming moderate overnight but will
rebuild to breezy by Monday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period with gusty and
breezy onshore winds. Winds will become light overnight and
variable before returning to breezy by Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 828 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Moderate northwesterly winds tonight into Monday. Dry weather
prevails through the forecast period as high pressure builds by
Monday night and moves eastward. Beginning Tuesday night and
continuing into Thursday, winds will become more northerly and
strengthen to gale force winds, mostly over the outer waters.
Significant wave heights will build beginning Tuesday with wave
heights between 12 to 15 feet by mid-week. The combination of strong
winds and elevated seas will pose hazardous conditions from
Tuesday through the end of the work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Bain
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Kennedy

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea