Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 230333
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The short term period is expected to feature minimal/nil impactful
weather hazards. Any lingering areas of light wrap-around
precipitation, in vicinity of an upper low across ArkLaTex,
should continue meandering eastward across southeast Oklahoma
early this evening. Further north and west, a cold front currently
extends from ~Quanah, TX to Okmulgee, OK. The most notable
sensible outcome with this feature will be transition from light
to occasionally gusty (20-30 mph) north winds.

In areas along and ahead of the front by early this evening
(east-central/southeast Oklahoma), objective analysis highlights
development of weak, yet sufficient, instability for a few
frontally-forced showers and/or storms. Deep-layer wind shear
will be weak (<20 knots) such that organized/severe storms are not
expected, though small hail cannot be ruled out. Any storm should
rapidly wane in intensity around sunset. Into the overnight, the
combination of clearing skies and light winds (in a post-frontal
airmass) is expected to foster temperatures at/just below freezing
across portions of northwestern Oklahoma.

Saturday will likely feature the lowest impact weather of the
upcoming 2-3 days. Aloft, a brief stint of ridging is expected
across the Plains during the daytime. Despite a post-frontal
airmass, southerly surface flow is expected to develop by the early
afternoon (especially west) ahead of an approaching mid-latitude
upper system. Typical late March temperatures will result (mid to
upper-60s) with increasing cloud cover by the evening.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Sunday: An impactful weather day, with multiple hazard types,
remains likely for much of the forecast area. The impetus will be
the approach of a compact/vigorous (90-100 knot jet streak) lead
shortwave trough. As this occurs, rapid development and deepening
of a lee cyclone is expected across portions of southeast
Colorado/southwest Kansas by Sunday evening. Grand ensemble
guidance depicts surface pressure as low as ~980-982 mb with this
feature, approaching regional climatological maximum for late
March. A combination of high wind, fire weather and severe weather
concern remains forecast from midday Sunday (winds) through late
Sunday evening (severe weather).

High Wind: Multiple features look likely to yield wind gusts of
40-50 mph (with isolated 55+ mph not out of the question) across
the western and west-central forecast area beginning shortly after
sunrise. There is high confidence in an intense (synoptically-
driven) low-level jet becoming centered across central Oklahoma by
the early afternoon. Even if early day cloud cover limits
vertical momentum transfer into the mid-afternoon, proximity to an
intense surface low will yield a robust east-west pressure
gradient (~15-22 mb) across Oklahoma. Either (or both) of these
factors will promote gusty south winds through much of the day,
with gusts of 40-50 mph expected to be common across the western
half of the area. A High Wind Watch is maintained where the
highest probability of potentially damaging non-thunderstorm wind
gusts currently exists.

Fire Weather: A problematic and potentially dangerous fire
environment is expected across the eastern Texas Panhandle Sunday
afternoon, potentially extending into our far western counties by
the late afternoon/early evening. The main uncertainty at this
update remains just how far east a psuedo-dryline/Pacific front
will push into our area during the peak burning period. As of this
cycle, it appears the boundary may pass our far western row of
counties in ~3-6 PM time frame. Surface conditions behind the
front will feature an overlap of rapid drying (RH <20%), very warm
temperatures (perhaps approaching 80-degrees) and southwest wind
gusts of 35-50 mph. A Fire Weather Watch has been posted for
areas across far western Oklahoma where the probability of
problematic fire starts and spread is highest. Interests adjacent
to the current watch area should closely monitor this threat over
coming updates.

Severe Weather: This threat remains the most uncertain of the
sensible hazards expected on Sunday. As strong synoptic forcing
for ascent overspreads the region, and a psuedo-dryline/Pacific
front translates eastward, convective initiation looks likely
across the western forecast area. Little change (relative to past
updates) in the character of synoptic features is noted across
guidance this morning. The combination of a strong synoptic wave,
surface low and low-level jet will contribute to kinematics
strongly favoring organized deep convection. While very cold upper
temperatures/steep lapse rates may yield sufficient instability
build, moisture quality remains a big question mark for
sustained/severe convective chances. A signal that is rather
ubiquitous across recent runs of model guidance is for a pocket of
locally drier air, possibly the result of downsloping off high
terrain across northern Mexico, to advect towards the evolving
boundary by Sunday evening. Should this be realized, a significant
downtrend in instability would materialize (despite very cold
temperatures aloft). As currently advertised, the most likely
scenario is for numerous (high-based) convective attempts to
develop along the advancing front during the late afternoon (as
early as 3 PM). A few merging updrafts will likely mature/sustain
and, given the background environment discussed, pose a risk for
large hail and perhaps a few damaging wind events.

Next Week: As our dynamic upper system departs to the east/north, a
transition back towards lower impact weather is expected. Depending
on the progression of the front on Monday, low chances for a few
showers and perhaps a storm may linger across our southeast Oklahoma
zones through late Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the main sensible
impact by early next week will be a turn towards cooler/below
average temperatures. This is expected on Monday across northwestern
Oklahoma, then expanding for much of the area by Tuesday (highs in
the 50s areawide). Of most interest on the temperature front is the
increasing probability for a late season hard freeze (low-20s)
across portions of northern Oklahoma on Tuesday morning.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR is expected until 232400. Gusty north wind will slowly
subside tonight and become gusty from the south in western
Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and through the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  37  63  52  68 /  10   0   0  50
Hobart OK         36  63  51  73 /   0   0  10  50
Wichita Falls TX  41  66  55  74 /  10   0   0  30
Gage OK           31  64  49  74 /   0   0  10  50
Ponca City OK     33  60  49  65 /   0   0  20  70
Durant OK         41  67  51  68 /  20   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>018-021>024-033>035.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for OKZ004-009-014-021-033-034.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...09


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