Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 122009
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
209 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
A front will push through the region later this afternoon and
we`re beginning to see some showers move into the Magic Valley
now. This activity will continue to push eastward with some
convective enhancement still possible. Have seen a few CG
lightning strikes with the activity to our west. Temperatures are
warm enough to support rain in the valleys but elevations above
6000 ft or so will see snow. Temperatures and snow levels will
drop overnight to valley floors tonight as a trough sinks across
eastern Idaho with a closed upper-low developing during the day
Wednesday. Hi-res models do show some moisture lingering around
the area tomorrow which will lead to some light snow
accumulations. Just how much, remains to be seen. Convergence band
signature isn`t quite as strong as previous model runs but they
still show something. That being said, snowfall totals ticked down
a bit for tomorrow but confidence is low and things can still
change. For now, the forecast shows around 1/2 inch around
Pocatello, an inch around Idaho Falls and a few inches around
Island Park and into much of the eastern highlands. Winds do pick
up across the Magic Valley and South Hills around daybreak
tomorrow, near wind advisory levels, but felt it too marginal to
issue anything although a few spots will likely reach criteria for
a brief period of time. Moisture should begin to taper off by the
second half of the day although temps will remain quite chilly
for mid-March. Things change in earnest though as we get into the
extended period with much more enjoyable weather ahead. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday
No impacts in the long term period. A large upper level ridge
develops west of Idaho and gradually moves east. No precipitation
is forecast. It will start out below normal temperature wise
Thursday behind the present system but warm gradually through the
period to well above normal by the weekend and into early next
week. Highs by Tuesday will be mainly in the 50s to lower 60s
other than extremely high mountain elevations. Will be one of the
longer periods of quiet weather in southeast Idaho for quite
awhile. GK


&&

.AVIATION...
Expect convective showers this afternoon through about 00Z
potentially changing to snow after 00Z for a short time as colder
air moves in.  An upper level low dropping south from Canada
Wednesday over Idaho will likely provide some light snow and return
to MVFR conditions in the TAFs at IDA, PIH and DIJ after 12Z.
There is less than a 20 percent chance of a site seeing a
thunderstorm this afternoon but enough instability around where it
is possible and have some VCTS this afternoon as well. GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ056-
072.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM MDT Wednesday for IDZ060-064.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ066.

&&

$$


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