Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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650
FXUS65 KPIH 250730
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
130 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. Until we get to Friday
afternoon, look for dry and warmer weather across eastern Idaho. A
system clips the Divide this afternoon, but look for nothing but
some more clouds. By later Friday and Friday night, the ridge
shifts east and the leading edge of our weekend storm pushes into
the state. Enough mid level moisture arrives for isolated showers
and thunderstorms. The models are all over the place with a range
of dry/nothing develops to a decent round of convection. We
compromised with isolated coverage along with light amounts
falling from that due to dry low level air. Even with more clouds
Friday, southerly flow will give us the warmest day of the week.
Keyes

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

Main focus remains on a large low pressure system that will produce
unsettled weather across the region for the weekend into early next
week. Models are now in good agreement for this system. Expect
convection to develop across the region on Saturday ahead of a
strong cold front. Showers will become more widespread Saturday
night with showers looking more likely for a large amount of the
region on Sunday. Cooler air works into the region as well
dropping snow levels to 7500 ft. Unsettled weather continues into
Monday and Tuesday as the low remains nearby. Forecast for
Wednesday is highly uncertain as the low moves off and we
transition to northwest flow. The European brings a fast moving
system into the area Wednesday, whereas the GFS keeps us dry.

Valle

&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions today with southwest wind
developing across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley this afternoon
as a weak system passes through the Yellowstone region tonight.

Valle

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Warming temperatures through the week will help to
enhance snowmelt at mid and upper levels. A chance of showers
heading into the weekend will add to runoff while cooler
temperatures help to relieve some pressure. For now, it looks as if
the Portneuf, Blackfoot, Big Lost, Henry`s Fork and Snake River will
all see high flows at some point during the next week. Huston

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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