Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
000
FXUS65 KPIH 150855
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
255 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night.
An extended period of quiet and dry weather will continue into
early next week as a ridge axis of high pressure in the ERN
Pacific shifts east over the NRN Rockies. Highs will be in the
40s/50s both today and Saturday with seasonably cool overnight
lows courtesy of mostly clear to clear skies overhead. The
deterministic high temperature forecast continues to fall below
the NBM 50th percentile which is likely attributed to a colder
bias on the NBM given the weather pattern earlier in the month.
Should we trend closer to that 50th percentile, temperatures would
be slightly warmer with better chances for some of our lowest
elevations seeing more 50s/60s. Nonetheless, enjoy the beautiful
weather with plenty of sunshine. MacKay
.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.
Ridge axis associated with well-defined Rex block (closed high
over PacNW and closed low over desert SW) tilts over into East
Idaho Sunday into Monday. Models continue to weaken the high
slightly Tuesday ahead of progressive Pacific low working toward
the PacNW. Ensemble clusters remain in very good agreement through
this time period, keeping warm and dry early-spring conditions
over East Idaho. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day with NBM
means holding high temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout
lower elevation areas. 90th percentile temps bring high temps on
Tuesday fully into the 60s for lower elevation areas. PacNW low
leans into Idaho beginning Wednesday, but slower than previous
runs. From there, there is more disagreement on how the trough
develops over the northwest US. The trend is for general agreement
on unsettled conditions for the latter half of the extended
period. Temperatures turn slightly cooler, closer to normal, but
still warm enough to support mainly rain at lower elevations
through Friday. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday.
VFR conditions are expected for all sites as high pressure
settles into the region. Breezy northerly winds 10-15kts likely at
KIDA/KPIH/KBYI, especially this afternoon, decreasing after
sunset. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$