Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 230901
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
301 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today...Abundant precipitation anticipated for late
morning through this afternoon as moisture surges in from low
pressure centered to our east. Favored areas will initially be
the Caribou Highlands, Arco Desert, northern Snake Plain, Teton
Valley through the Upper Highlands including Driggs, Idaho Falls,
Rexburg and Island Park. Expect about 1/4 inch of rain this
morning with some areas potentially receiving 1/2 inch or more.
These areas will continue to be favored going through the
afternoon with the addition of the lower Snake Plain and portions
of the Central Mountains, who are expected to receive around 1/4
inch of rain. Scattered thunderstorms will be a possibility
throughout our region during the morning, afternoon and early
evening as well. Some of these thunderstorms will have the
potential to be severe during the early afternoon particularly
across the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake Highlands. This means
that large hail, gusty winds and heavy rain is possible. Areas
least favored for rain and thunderstorms will be the Eastern Magic
Valley region with around 1/10 of an inch forecast. By late
evening into the overnight hours, lingering rain showers are
expected but overall activity is expected to have diminished
across SE ID. Showers will continue for the Upper Highlands, Teton
Valley, Caribou Highlands and portions of the Snake Plain.
Thunderstorm risk will be diminished as well.

Tomorrow through Friday...Temperatures tomorrow will begin to
rebound from their cooler nature today to above normal high
temperatures. Rain showers are expected to persist over portions
of our area, including the Central Mountains and possibly along
the Continental Divide Thursday. The warming temperature trend is
expected to continue through Friday with temperatures climbing
into the 80s while high pressure works into the region. NP/Valle

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

A low pressure system over the Great Basin will dictate our weather
through middle of next week. Most of the extended forecast looks
stormy with the chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening when peak heating occurs. Maybe, perhaps, by the end of next
week the pattern looks a little less active. But there`s still a lot
of moisture around and the models tend to be highly uncertain at
that time range.

Valle

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Low pressure over the region will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Gusty erratic winds and
small hail are likely near thunderstorms. May see widespread
coverage today across much of northeast Idaho along the upper Snake
Highlands and perhaps into the upper Snake Plain. Friday may be dry
before another system arrives for the weekend.

Valle

&&

.AVIATION...Low pressure over the area will produce showers and
thunderstorms once again today. Unlike previous days, coverage looks
more widespread today from PIH and IDA eastward. For that reason,
better chance of seeing lower ceilings of MVFR maybe even IFR
temporarily at sites such as PIH, IDA, or DIJ.

Valle

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Several area rivers are being monitored for potential
impacts from todays forecast QPF amounts, including the Big Lost,
Big Wood, Blackfoot near Shelley and Henry`s Fork at Rexburg.
Additional impacts are possible on other area rivers, creeks and
streams as well and will be dependent on rainfall/thunderstorm
output. Areas favored for highest rainfall through tonight include
the Caribou Highlands, Arco Desert, northern Snake Plain, Teton
Valley through the Upper Highlands. Widespread 1/2 inch upward of
1 inch of precipitation are forecast. Currently, The Big Wood at
Hailey remains in a Flood Advisory until further notice with the
latest forecast reaching minor flood status tonight. NP/Valle

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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