Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
428 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Showers rapidly ending across the plains as the upper low across
north central OK continues to pull eastward.  Given current radar
trends have taken down all the winter weather highlights this
morning.  It will still be windy on the back side of the system
today, particularly for the plains.  Could see some gusts to near 40
mph this morning across the far eastern plains and to around 30 mph
elsewhere. Winds should slacken off this afternoon as surface
pressure gradient relaxes.

Models redevelop showers across the mountains this afternoon as
lingering moisture and instability generates some convective snow
showers.  Spotty accumulations of an inch or two will be
possible...with the best chance across the Pikes Peak region.
Showers will diminish this evening with clearing skies overnight.
Kept min temps on the cold side of guidance out west where good
radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the single
digits in the colder valley locations.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Tuesday and Wednesday...Northwest flow aloft will remain in place
across the region, with isolated snow showers returning to the
central mts on Wed while the plains remain dry. Expect a warming
trend with highs in the 50s for most locations on Tue, then mid 50s
to around 60F for the high valleys and 60s for the plains on Wed.

Thursday and Friday...The upper ridge axis will track east across CO
early Thu, with snow showers increasing along the Continental Divide
on Thu and then spreading to all of the higher terrain by Fri.
Meanwhile, the plains will still remain dry, and temps will warm
considerably Thu into Fri. Look for max temps in the 60s for the
high valleys and upper 60s to near 80F for the plains on Thu. For
Fri, expect highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s for the high valleys,
and 70s to lower 80s for the plains. Winds will be on the increase
as well for Fri, so the combination of hot and dry conditions
coupled with gusty winds will likely produce fire weather concerns
for the eastern plains.

Saturday and Sunday...Long range models are indicating that the next
system to affect the region will do the same as a number of previous
systems, which is to take a more northerly path and weaken. The mts
will likely receive more accumulating snowfall Sat and Sun, while
the plains will remain for the most part dry. Sat will be another
warm and dry day, but the strength of the winds is somewhat
questionable, so there is a chance of continued fire weather
concerns into Sat. Look for temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s for
the high valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains on Sat. Sun
will be a little cooler but still mild, with highs in the 50s across
the high valleys and 60s to around 70F for the plains. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24
hours...though some areas of MVFR cigs/vis with lingering snow
showers will be possible this morning along the Palmer Divide.
Clouds will thin and break later this morning...then redevelop with
convective snow showers over and near the mountains this afternoon.
Some brief VFR to MVFR cigs with -SHSN will be possible through this
evening.  North to northwest winds will gust to 25-30 kts this
morning for both KCOS and KPUB before decreasing this afternoon.
Winds will remain lighter at KALS with some northwest winds around
10 kts through the afternoon.  Light winds and clearing skies
expected at all three terminals this evening. -KT




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