Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 232149
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
349 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing southwest flow brings snow, heavy at times to areas
  along and west of the ContDvd tonight

- Critical fire weather conditions across the southeast Plains
  Sunday, with showers and possible thunderstorms spreading
  across the higher terrain and adjacent Plains

- Snow and strong winds likely at many locations from Sunday
  evening into Monday morning, with travel impacts over the
  Palmer Divide and southern I-25 corridor

- Lingering snow showers Monday afternoon into Tuesday night,
  some light additional accumulation, mainly over the mountains

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates increasing
southwest flow across the Rockies, as an eastern Pacific storm system
continues to dig across the West Coast and a strong Pacific jet translates
across the southern California Coast and into the Desert SW attm. Induced
lee trough across the Plains has gusty southerly winds in place across the
far southeast Plains, with some low level moisture return as dew pts have
risen into the mid 30s, while breezy southwest winds west of the sfc trough
have kept dew pts mainly in the teens and 20s. GOES satellite imagery
indicates mid and upper level moisture streaming out ahead of the Pacific
trough across the Great Basin and into the Rockies, with regional radars
starting to indicate showers developing across the western slope.

Latest SPC meso-analysis indicates some instability (cape <500 j/kg) across
the far southeast plains, with some cape across the eastern mtns as well.
With that said, can`t rule a few -shra or even a rumble of thunder through
the early evening, though some of the high res model data seems to be
overdoing the moisture return across the plains.

Otherwise, increasing moisture and lift ahead of the Pacific trough will
bring increasing coverage of snow to areas along and west of ContDvd
tonight, with showers and possible thunderstorms spreading east across
the higher terrain and immediate adjacent plains through the day tomorrow.
Current Winter Weather Advisories across the higher terrain of the ContDvd
still look good, with 6-12 inches possible across the eastern San Juans,
and 4-9 inches across the La Garita and eastern Sawatch mtns, combined with
the gusty winds to create hazardous travel across the Divide tonight and
Sunday.

Deepening sfc low and deep mixing across the plains looks to mix out low
level moisture through the late morning with critical fire weather conditions
expected across the far southeast plains. With that said, we have upgraded
the previous Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for portions of Las
Animas, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties. This will be ahead of a strong
cold front which is posed to slam across eastern Colorado late tomorrow
afternoon, bringing showers and possible thunderstorms to Palmer Dvd and
the southeast plains tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Again, good agreement regarding synoptic features among most 23/12z
models/ensembles with the incoming trough, main questions now revolve
around mesoscale qpf/strong wind placement and resultant impacts.
Starting Sunday evening, stacked surface/mid level low pressure, over
ern CO initially, moves into KS by midnight, then continues to head
northeastward into the upper Midwest during the day on Mon. Cold
front blasts south through the plains/I-25 corridor early Sunday
evening, followed quickly by strong north winds and a rapid increase
in precip as cold air pours south. Rain will quickly change to snow
along the Palmer Divide early in the evening, with snow across all of
the plains by early Monday morning as snow level drops toward 5k
feet by midnight and below 4k feet by 2 am. Magnitude of low/mid
level north wind (50 kts at 700 mb) suggests that once initial
frontal lift comes through and brings widespread rain/snow in the
evening, heavier snow will then concentrate along the Palmer Divide
and across nly upslope enhanced terrain south the Arkansas River,
including the srn I-25 corridor. Have issued new winter wx advisories
for these areas, as combination of snow and wind will likely create
travel impacts, especially from early morning into midday Monday.

For Colorado Springs and Pueblo metros, main concern would be a
quick flash freeze of area roads Sunday evening, as rapid cooling and
quick burst of heavy snow could overcome initially warm ground
conditions. Haven`t issued a highlight for these areas yet, as snow
amounts may end up too low to cause issues given howling northerly
downslope winds, but situation will need to monitored. Could also see
at least a brief period of strong/ potentially damaging winds around
50 kts from ern El Paso through Crowley and Kiowa counties, though
suspect NBM winds are a little too strong here as they are several
knots stronger than usually too windy HRRR, and will hold off on a
High Wind Watch for now. For most of the mountains, accums through
Monday will stay in the 5 to 10 inch range, heaviest over the eastern
San Juans.

Snowfall ends by midday Monday over most lower elevations, while some
snow showers linger over mainly the Sangres into the afternoon, though
accums should be light. Cold maxes most locations Mon, though
plains/valleys should at least creep above freezing by late
afternoon. Clouds and mountain snow showers will persist Monday night
into Tuesday night as trailing upper energy slides eastward through
the state, though accums look on the low side and limited to the
higher peaks. Drier and warmer from Wed into the end of the week,
though a few snow showers will likely return to the Continental
Divide Thu/Fri as deep upper low takes shape along the West Coast.
Lower elevations will likely see dry and increasingly windy
conditions by week`s end, and some enhanced fire danger looks likely
Thu/Fri on the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions expected at COS and PUB through the day Sunday with breezy
southwest winds 15-25kt developing through the afternoon. Winds diminish
through the evening, with the potential for llws, especially at COS with
increasing southwest flow aloft ahead the next storm system moving into the
Rockies. This system will spread showers across the mountains and plains
Sunday afternoon and evening, with MVFR/IFR and possible LIFR conditions
to COS by 00Z Monday in snow and blowing behind a strong cold front.

Mainly VFR conditions expected at ALS through the day Sunday. Gusty southwest
winds 15-30kts diminish this evening and develop once again Sunday morning.
Incoming storm system will bring increasing coverage of showers across the
higher terrain west and east of the terminal, with shower chances increasing
across the valley floor Sunday morning. MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible
with these passing showers.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT
Monday for COZ058-060-064-066.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Monday for COZ067-068.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to midnight MDT
Monday night for COZ072>075-079-080.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to noon MDT Monday
for COZ081-082.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to noon MDT Monday
for COZ084.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to noon MDT Monday
for COZ087-088-094.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Sunday for COZ233-
235>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WANKOWSKI
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...WANKOWSKI


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