Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 150540
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1140 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Updated grids to include isolated/scattered PoPs across the high
elevations of Lake County this evening. A weak disturbance in the
northwest flow should bring a quick shot of light snow showers to
the area.

UPDATE Issued at 626 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Quick update for issuance of Fire Weather Watch for Monday morning
through Monday afternoon for portions of the forecast area. Also
brought in latest obs and blended with forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...Winds diminishing across the area this evening...

Currently...Surface and upper level low pressure continue to slowly
lift northeastward into the Midwest this afternoon, with pressure
gradient gradually relaxing across the region. Only location to
reach high wind criteria this afternoon has been Baca county around
Springfield, while peak gusts farther north and west have stayed in
the 35-45 kt range. With KPUX VAD showing winds below 40 kts
in the surface through 13k msl layer, and HRRR depicting gust
speeds decreasing below 40 kts 22z-23z, will cancel remaining high
wind warning with new forecast issuance.

Tonight...winds rapidly decrease this evening with loss of mixing
and weakening pressure gradient, and expect speeds to drop below 15
kts at most locations after midnight. Given clear skies and dry air,
min temps will be fairly cold, and readings at/below freezing are
expected area-wide.

Sunday...Weak surface high pressure dropping through the plains will
turn winds sely along and east of the mountains by afternoon, though
speeds will remain under 20 kts through late day. Models
occasionally produce some isolated convection over the mountains in
the afternoon as mid levels moisten slightly, but doubt we`ll see
more than some modest convective cloud cover over the peaks and
won`t include any pops. Max temps will warm considerably across the
region as upper ridge builds and mid level temps rise, with 60s
reappearing across the plains and most interior valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...Increasing wind once again for Monday and Tuesday...

Sunday night and Monday...The upper ridge axis crosses the state Sun
night, with increasing southwest flow aloft expected for Mon as the
next upper low pressure trough approaches the West Coast. This will
help to keep dry conditions in place as well as boost aftn highs.
The warm dry conditions coupled with increasing winds will likely
push fire weather conditions to near critical for the San Luis
Valley as well as the southern foothills. Max temps Mon are forecast
to warm into the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 70s to
around 80F for the eastern plains.

Tuesday...The next weather system crosses the Great Basin very early
Tue, then crosses the rockies and brushes by the northern half of
Colorado Tue and Tue night. This will bring 3 to 4 inches of new
snow to the higher terrain, with the highest amounts expected over
the central mts. For the rest of the forecast area, the main concern
will be another rough of very strong west to southwest winds,
boosting dry and warm conditions and enhancing fire danger. Look for
highs in the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to mid 70s for the
plains.

Wednesday and Thursday...As the first system passes to the east, a
temporary ridge will track across the region midweek. Lighter winds
and mild but dry conditions are expected. Maximum temps will warm
into the 50s to lower 60s for Wed, then 60s to lower 70s for Thu.

Friday and Saturday...Extended models agree on bringing another
upper low pressure system into the region for the weekend, with snow
beginning over western CO early Fri morning, then crossing the
entire state Fri into Sat as the low passes overhead. Exact pcpn
location and amounts are still a question this far out, but
increased cloud cover and cooler temps are a good bet. Look for
highs both days in the 50s to mid 60s for most locations. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Winds will remain light this evening through Sunday morning at
all three TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, KPUB). Winds at KALS will become
south/southwesterly during the afternoon, while winds at KCOS and
KPUB will turn southerly/southeasterly, all at 7-12 knots. VFR
conditions are expected at all three TAF sites for the next 24
hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ222-224-225-228>230-233.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LINE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LINE



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