Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 260459
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1059 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

An upper level ridge over the area will be shifting eastward thru
the next 24 hrs as an upper level trof moves over the western U.S.
The weather is expected to be dry across southeast and south central
CO tonight and Sat, and temps will be well above average, and at or
near record levels.  Highs on Sat will be in the 90s over the
southeast plains, with the Lamar area expected to be around 100. The
Upper Arkansas River Valley and the San Luis Valley will see highs
in the 80s on Sat. Record highs for Sat are as follows: Alamosa 84
set in 1969 and previous years, Colo Spgs 90 set in 2012, and Pueblo
97 set in 2012.

The main concern will be the expected critical fire weather
conditions.  Sat afternoon, humidities are forecast to be below 15
percent over most of the area, and winds will gust to between 20 and
35 mph.  The fuels are dry from about the I-25 corridor and
westward, and thus this is the area that a Red Flag Warning will be
in effect for Sat afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

Saturday night through Monday...Upper closed low over the Great
Basin is expected to remain in place through at least the first half
of Mon, producing strong deep southwest flow across the Four Corners
and will continue ongoing warm and dry conditions. Fire danger
remains the main concern over this holiday weekend, so issued
another Fire Weather Watch for the I-25 corridor and westward for
Sun, and might have to do the same for Mon. Look for high temps in
the 70s to near 80F for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for
the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The upper low weakens late Mon and moves
east across WY through Wed. Late Mon evening a weak cold front is
expected to drop south across the Palmer Divide, cooling temps
slightly and raising humidity levels both Tue and Wed. Isolated
diurnal showers and storms are forecast each day for the higher
terrain and far eastern plains, along with weaker winds. Temps will
warm into the 70s for the high valleys, and 80s to around 90F for
the plains.

Thursday and Friday...An upper longwave trough over the West Coast
will once again bring hot and dry conditions to the region, with the
forecast area slipping back into enhanced fire danger. The
probability of convection will be minimal, and minimum humidity
levels each aftn will likely drop into the single digits. Temps will
again warm to near 80F for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s
for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1057 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period for
all of the sites. Winds will be light and variable throughout the
overnight hours, but by tomorrow afternoon winds speeds will
become gusty. Clouds ceilings will lower tomorrow evening, but not
to the point that will change flight categories.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220>230.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ220>230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...SKELLY


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