Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1114 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 437 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...Cooler Today with Spotty Showers Possible over the Mountains...

Weak upper disturbance and right rear entrance region of the jet
passing over southeast Colorado this morning. This system will be
exiting the state to the southeast today.  Meanwhile, upper high
pressure, with a weak embedded disturbance, will build into the
western half of the forecast area.  This disturbance could bring
some spotty light showers to the higher terrain this afternoon
through this evening.  Though, any accumulations will be spotty and
light, generally only amounting to about an inch or 2 across the
higher terrain.

Elsewhere, it`ll be a bit cooler today as the airmass across the
region is cooling behind the disturbance moving through. Under
partly cloudy skies and light upslope winds, temperatures across the
plains should be a little cooler than average today. Elsewhere,
they`ll be near to a little above average for this time of year.

Winds will be light enough and humidities high enough to reduce fire
concerns some today.  Regardless,  southern Colorado remains under
moderate to severe drought stress.  Fuels are dry and will ignite
with ease.  This has been demonstrated several times over the past
few days.  Caution with spark and flame needs to continue. If you
spot a fire or see smoke, contact local law enforcement right

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 437 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Initially, generally dry and warm conditions are still
anticipated over the majority of the forecast district from
Wednesday into Wednesday evening as upper ridging moves across
southern Colorado.

Recent forecast model soundings, PV/Precipitable water analysis
and computer simulations indicate that increased pops as well as
increased winds will develop over primarily western and northern
locations from Wednesday night into Thursday night as a closed
upper low develops over east-central Colorado by 09Z Friday. Many
Continental Divide locations will be capable of experiencing
several inches of snow and gusty winds with this system.

Elsewhere over the forecast district, primary meteorological
concern during the Wednesday night into Thursday night
time-frame will will be strong winds at times as well as an
increasing near critical to critical fire weather threat by
Thursday afternoon(favoring eastern sections).

Then, as next upper short-waves move primarily just to the north
of the forecast district from Friday into Monday, continued near
critical to critical fire weather concerns(again favoring eastern
sections) and strong winds at times(possibly nearing and/or
exceeding high wind criteria at times) will continue each day.

In addition, another round of snow and blowing snow is anticipated
over primarily Continental Divide locations from Saturday evening
into Sunday.

Warmest maximum and minimum temperatures during the longer term
over the majority of the forecast district should be realized from
Wednesday into at least Thursday night, while coolest temperatures
are anticipated from Saturday into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR conditions will exist for all of the forecast points throughout
this period, but a weak shortwave trough will create lower FEW to
BKN cloud cover over the region during the evening and overnight





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