Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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138
FXUS65 KPUB 172016
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
216 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Will extend the blowing dust warning until 5 pm for the S mtns and
San Luis valley.

UPDATE Issued at 1105 AM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Have added all of the San Luis valley in the dust storm warning.
/Hodanish

UPDATE Issued at 925 AM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

....DUST STORM WARNING ISSUED...

Reports from spotters and CDOT webcams show that visibility is
less than 1 mile due to blowing dust. Hi res sat pix imagery show
this blowing dust coming from the northern San Luis Valley and
moving across the northern Sangre de Cristo mountains, wet
mtn valley  and moving across Fremont county. Hi res HRRR shows
that the strongest winds will continue this morning and early
afternoon, decreasing later this afternoon. /Hodanish

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 454 AM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...High Winds and High Fire Danger Tuesday...

Currently, GOES-16 water vapor imagery reveals a broad upper-level
trough advancing east into the Four Corners region. This feature
will track across Colorado during the day Tuesday. Dry southwest
flow ahead of the trough will spread across much of southern
Colorado during the day, including a large area of 60+ knot 600 mb
winds. Deep vertical daytime mixing and a tightening surface
pressure gradient in association with a deepening surface low in
eastern Colorado will lead to strong and gusty surface winds from
late morning through the afternoon. Sustained winds out of the
southwest at 35-45 mph with gusts of 55-60 mph can be expected
across the San Luis Valley and eastern plains. Therefore, a High
Wind Warning is in effect for those areas from 10 AM to 8 PM.
Further, the strong winds will combine with very low RH values - as
low as 5% - under the descending dry air across the same areas
leading to critical-to-extreme fire weather conditions. Given the
weather conditions and continued dry fuels, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect from 10 AM to 8 PM today. The strong winds will also create
areas of blowing dust across the eastern plains, which could
temporarily reduce visibilities. As the upper trough axis moves
east out of Colorado, a bora cold front will accelerate east across
the region during the early evening hours. Winds will shift to a
northwesterly direction, and weaken through the evening.

The storm system will also bring snow showers to the continental
divide, with generally 1-4 inches expected in the central mountains.
The period of greatest snowfall will be between Noon and 6 PM. Winds
will also be strong across the mountains, with 60-70 mph gusts at
high elevations.

Ahead of the cold front, high temperatures across the plains on
Tuesday will reach the mid 60s in the Colorado Springs area, around
70 along the southern I-25 corridor, to around 80 near the Kansas
border. Highs in the San Luis Valley will be in the mid 50s.
Weakening northwest surface winds and clearing skies Tuesday evening
will allow lows to dip into the 20s to low 30s across the plains and
teens in the San Luis Valley. Line

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 454 AM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Main longer term meteorological concerns continue to be winds,
temperatures, elevated fire weather concerns/thunderstorm
potential at times as well as increasing precipitation potential
from Thursday evening into Saturday evening.

Generally tranquil meteorological conditions are expected over
the forecast district from Wednesday into the balance of Thursday
as basically dry zonal to southwesterly upper flow develops over
southern Colorado. Localized/elevated fire weather
conditions(favoring the San Luis Valley) will be possible
Wednesday and especially Thursday as afternoon winds increase.

Meteorological focus then shifts to vigorous storm system(that
will be capable of producing beneficial precipitation including
higher terrain snow, gusty winds and thunderstorms at times over
sections of the forecast district).

This closed upper low initially centered off the coast of
northern California at 12Z Wednesday is projected to be entering
central California by 12Z Thursday before nearing the 4-Corners
region by 12Z Friday before shifting into the Oklahoma/Texas
panhandle by 18Z Saturday and then into Arkansas by 12Z Sunday.

A more tranquil(although showers will still be possible) and
warmer meteorological regime is still expected to develop over
southern Colorado from Sunday into Monday morning as a
transitory upper ridging moves south of the CWA.

The highest potential for gusty winds over the forecast district
during the longer term are anticipated into Wednesday morning and
then again from Wednesday evening into Friday.

Coolest temperatures over the forecast district during the longer
term are expected Friday and Saturday, while warmest temperatures
should be realized Thursday and then again from Sunday into at
least Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Intense southwest winds (G45 to 55 knts) will continue through
the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon. Winds will
decrease somewhat but will still remain strong and shift more to a
westerly direction by mid to later afternoon. Winds will decrease
significantly this evening.

Blowing dust will restrict visibility at each taf site, kpub, kals
and kcos. Vis at KALS will be most restricted with vis down to
1/4 sm in blowing dust.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ069>071-077-
078-083>089-093>099.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-
224>237.

Dust Storm Warning until 5 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ069>073-
076>078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
AVIATION...Hodanish



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