Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161102
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
502 AM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

The main concern for today is the high fire danger.  The upper level
ridge currently over the area, will be shifting eastward thru the
day as an upper level trof deepens over the western U.S.  This
deepening low will lead to increasing west to southwest flow aloft
over the area today, and increasing surface winds.  Afternoon
humidities are forecast to fall below 15 percent over most of the
lower elevations today.  At this time, the current Red Flag Warning
area for today still looks good, except that the lower elevations of
Chaffee county will also likely see Red Flag conditions develop as
well, so will add fire zone 220 (Lake & Chaffee counties) to the
existing Warning. Temps today will be above average by 10 degrees or
more.  Highs are forecast to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s acrs the
southeast plains, and in the 60s to around 70 in the San Luis and
Upper Arkansas River Valleys.

Tonight`s low temps will be a bit challenging, as south to southwest
winds in many areas should keep temps quite mild.  Late tonight
there could be a few showers over the higher peaks along the
Continental Divide.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Relatively active longer term anticipated with primary
meteorological issues being fire weather concerns, winds/areas of
blowing dust, pops, qpf, snow amounts, thunderstorms and
temperatures.

Initial longer term meteorological issues from Tuesday into
Tuesday evening will be winds, areas of blowing dust eastern
sections and fire weather threat over the eastern 2/3rds of the
forecast district as well as accumulating snow over the central
mountains as healthy upper system passes by to our north.

Will maintain existing red flag warning over the majority of the
forecast district from later Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening
as windy and dry conditions interact with above seasonal mid-April
temperatures.

In addition, several inches of accumulating snow is anticipated
over portions of the central mountains from Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Another concern during the Tuesday into Tuesday night will
be the potential for strong winds and areas of blowing dust. As
always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.

Then, a return to to less active meteorological conditions should
be noted from Wednesday into Thursday morning, thanks to dry zonal
to southwest upper flow and minimal upper disturbance activity.
Also, elevated/localized fire weather concerns will again be
possible both days.

Then, the next round of unsettled conditions(including the
potential for increased winds, pops, qpf and thunderstorms as
well as areas of snow) is anticipated from later Thursday into
Saturday evening as vigorous closed upper low located over far
north-central Arizona at 06Z Friday shifts into the 4-Corners
region by sunrise Friday before shifting into the Oklahoma/Texas
panhandle region by 12Z Saturday and then into Arkansas by 12Z
Sunday.

A quieter and warmer weather regime should develop over southern
Colorado from Sunday into at least Monday morning, thanks to
transitory upper ridging moving across the area.

At this time, the highest potential for gusty winds over the
forecast district during the longer term should be experienced
from Tuesday into Tuesday evening and then again from later
Thursday into Saturday.

Warmest temperatures during the longer term should be realized from
Tuesday into Thursday and then again by next Monday, while
coolest conditions should be noted from Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS the next 24 hrs.
KALS should see breezy southwest winds this afternoon with gusts of
30-35 kts.  KCOS should see south to southwest winds this afternoon,
with gusts around 25 kts.  KPUB should see south to southwest winds
this afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 kts, maybe a little stronger
toward evening.  Winds will decrease in the evening hours, but will
become quite strong on Tue in the late morning and afternoon hours,
with sustained winds of 25-35 kts not out of the question, along
with higher gusts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ222-
224>237.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ220-222-224>230-233-237.

&&

$$



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