092
FXUS62 KRAH 110711
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move off the coast of the Carolinas this evening.
High pressure will follow and extend across the Southeast and Middle
Atlantic through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 845 PM EDT Friday...

Surface cold front has pushed through our area and expected to exit
the coast over the next few hours. The severe thunderstorm watch has
been canceled for the areas. No more storms are expected tonight.
Although there is one storm exiting the southern tip of Sampson
county, but not expected to become severe. Dew points across the
much of the region have dropped into the mid 40s to mid 50s, with
temperatures in the mid 60s NW to low 70s SE. Gusty winds behind the
front are expected to diminish over the next few hours, but  light
northerly winds of 5 to 10 mph will continue through the night. Lows
overnight will range from low 50s NW to mid 50s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Friday...

Shortwave ridging will give way to a shortwave digging southeastward
into the Great Lakes, OH valley and northern Mid-Atlantic. While
most of the energy with the trough will remain to our north in VA,
height falls will promote some weak lift in the mid to late evening
hours across our northern counties. At the surface, high pressure
will give way to a lee trough. A secondary cold front or surface
trough will then move through in the evening and overnight hours.
Highs will be some 5-9 degrees below normal in the low to mid 70s,
comfortable for early May. WAA in a return SW flow aloft Sat night
between 850-700 mb will aid some weak (~100 J/kg) instability in the
mid to late evening hours ahead of the trough passage. While most
areas will see more dry time than showers, we introduced a slight
chance of isolated showers across mainly the northeast Piedmont and
northern Coastal Plain, roughly along/north of a line from Raleigh
to Rocky Mount. Any showers will exit by late evening, with lows
dipping a few degrees below seasonal normals into the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

Monday morning will find surface high pressure moving off the mid-
Atlantic states along with an upper level ridge moving over the
eastern United States. However, another upper level trough over the
central Plains will move east, helping to form a surface low over
southern Illinois by Tuesday morning. The bulk of the rain will fall
ahead of this low, and although Monday will remain dry, western
locations should have rain move in Monday night and the showers will
expand everywhere Tuesday. It`s too early to look at particular
rainfall amounts, but the heaviest rain is currently forecast for
Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday
night into Wednesday as the surface low moves over Washington DC and
moves offshore New Jersey by Wednesday evening. This should bring a
lull in precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday night before
another system moves east from the Plains. Some model guidance wants
to go with likely to categorical pops on Friday, but am not willing
to go with pops that high on day 7 and will cap pops at high chance.
Average temperatures this time of year are generally around 80 and
60, and forecast temperatures are generally around these numbers,
although highs will be a little cooler on Tuesday with the
widespread rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through Saturday
afternoon, with the one exception of some lingering stratocumulus
over the far east (including RWI) which has resulted in periods of
MVFR ceilings. While RWI is back to VFR, some high-res guidance
(including the RAP and GLAMP) shows MVFR returning there later
tonight, so have a TEMPO group at RWI for that potential from 08z-
12z. A deck of clouds from about 6-10 kft will move across central
NC from NW to SE on Saturday evening, and they may be accompanied by
a band of showers. Confidence in any brief sub-VFR visibilities with
the showers is low, but it cannot be entirely ruled out. Northerly
winds tonight will become more westerly/southwesterly by tomorrow
afternoon and evening, remaining less than 10 kts sustained and
possibly gusting up to 15 kts at times during the day.

Outlook: Rain and IFR-MVFR restrictions, lowest over the Piedmont at
INT/GSO, will overspread cntl NC Tue morning, with a following
chances of showers/storms Tue afternoon through Wed.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Danco/MWS