817
FXUS65 KRIW 101713
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1113 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the weekend. Isolated showers (15% to
  25%) occur the next couple days, with most places remaining
  dry.

- Bit more active weather next week, with better
  shower/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Northeast to east flow continues today as a cutoff low sits to our
southwest. A little moisture is associated with this system, with
precipitable water values around, to a little above, normal. Showers
are possible through the day, mainly in the same locations as
yesterday - Fremont, Natrona, and Sweetwater Counties. A few showers
may also occur over the mountains (20% chances). Overall, the trend
is that showers will be less numerous and places have less chances
of seeing a shower than yesterday. The mentioned counties have 15%
to 25% chances at most. Some better instability (CAPE <100 J/kg) may
bring some thunder to southern Sweetwater County. Temperatures trend
warmer today, peaking in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This is
slightly below average for mid-May.

There is a chance to view the aurora tonight. Check out the Space
Weather Prediction Center for details. Cloud cover should be
decreasing today, leaving a mostly clear sky tonight for most
locations. Models are indicating high clouds across Sweetwater
County overnight, but should be on a decreasing trend.

The cutoff low tracks eastward Saturday, as a ridge builds in
behind. Most locations look to remain dry. A few high-resolution
models are showing a few showers forming over the mountains.
Northerly flow aloft may bring a few of these to the lower
elevations. Overall, chances are 20% or less. High temperatures
reach the upper 60s to middle 70s, which are a bit above normal.

For Sunday, isolated (15%-30%), afternoon showers develop as a
shortwave passes through. Thunder is possible with this afternoon
convection. A more potent 500mb wave passes Monday through
Wednesday. Currently, most places look at have at least a chance (at
least 20%) to see rain. At this range, there is some uncertainty
with how deep the trough goes and exact timing of passage. For now,
widespread chances are in the forecast, but specific areas and
better timing should come in time. Temperatures cool as these
systems pass through, but most places should be sitting around
normal, to just above, through much of next week.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period. BKN
FL035 to FL050 cigs remain in place across KCPR, KLND, KRIW, KRKS,
and KWRL at the start of the period. MVFR cigs thus will be possible
at those terminals for the first hour or two, but any MVFR cigs will
scatter out from north to south through the early afternoon. SCT to
FEW high clouds will be the only remains of these decks by late
afternoon. Thin FEW high clouds will be the only ones to stream
across most terminals overnight. Winds will remain light for all
terminals through the period with the exception of KRKS, where
easterly winds gusting to around 30kts will continue through 03Z,
then decrease through the night.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wittmann
AVIATION...Hensley