Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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068
FNUS75 KRIW 141924
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Noon Point...BLM WOD
National Weather Service Riverton WY
124 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0300 MDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Limited moisture in northwest flow aloft over the
Absaroka mountains will bring increased cloud cover with isolated
showers to the burn area.  A lee side low pressure trough over the
western Bighorn basin will support increasing surface southwest
winds, while daytime heating will support development of upslope
and upvalley winds in the late morning and early afternoon.  The
afternoon cloud cover will likely determine which wind direction
winds out and may end up being rather variable with wind shifts
up and down valley through the afternoon with a downvalley push
around 1800 as sun angles lower and clouds increase cooling
slopes above the burn area.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...C.Baker

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 30.
Max humidity........78-81 percent.
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 4-7 mph.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest around 10 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.Less than 5 percent.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) Isolated snow
                    showers in the morning. Isolated rain showers
                    in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....47-51.
Min humidity........40-43 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph becoming southwest 10
                    to 12 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
                    Gusts up to 20 mph.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.Less than 5 percent.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL until 1200, then 7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Winds generally less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers and isolated showers. Lows
in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. Southwest winds around
16 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Colder. Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds around 16 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs
in the lower 40s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...C.Baker
Requested by...Grif Cochran
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1806692.0/RIW
.EMAIL gcochran@blm.gov



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