353
FXUS61 KRLX 041631
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1231 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through
much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week,
with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1025 AM Saturday...

Numerous showers with a couple of rumbles of thunder are over
the area this morning. Just some minor tweaks to the forecast to
better represent the location of these showers.


As of 640 AM Saturday...

Current forecast is generally on track as precipitation
continues to journey across the area this morning. No
significant changes have been made to the near term forecast at
this time.

As of 315 AM Saturday...

Scattered showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, will
continue to traverse the area early this morning, then activity
is expected to continue throughout the day as a shortwave
passes over the area. Coverage of showers and storms should peak
during the afternoon and evening hours when instability will be
the greatest. While storm activity may lessen again overnight,
chances for showers are expected to linger through the end of
the near term period.

Precipitation amounts for today and tonight should be under an
inch for much of the area, though pockets of higher amounts
will be possible due to locally heavy rain in showers and storms
today. Widespread flooding is not expected; however, some
localized issues aren`t out of the question in poor drainage
areas or if higher amounts fall over locations that experienced
heavy rain yesterday.

Between cloud cover and precipitation, daytime temperatures are
expected to max out in the 70s for the lowlands and mid 50s to
low 70s along the mountains. Lows for tonight should then be in
the 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1229 PM Saturday...

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Monday with a stalled
surface front over northern WV and a 500-mb shortwave approaching
from the southwest. The severe weather threat still looks low Monday
with weak 0-6 km shear of 15-25 kts. The threat of flooding also
looks low Monday, but any storms that train over the same areas
could potentially lead to localized flooding. Flash flood guidance
should be high enough and storms should be isolated enough so that
flooding won`t be a widespread concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1229 PM Saturday...

The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the rest of the
week with daily thunderstorm chances. However, the time to watch for
severe weather and flooding potential appear to be Wednesday and
possibly also on Thursday. Our region will be located in the warm
sector of a strengthening mid-latitude cyclone both days. Models are
showing modest 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts. Instability looks a little
more favorable Wednesday than Thursday with MLCAPE values reaching
1,000-1,500 J/kg Wednesday afternoon. In addition, models are also
showing PWAT values of 1.50-1.75" Wednesday into Thursday, so the
threat of flooding will have to be monitored. SPC currently has
portions of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky outlooked in a 15%
threat of severe weather Wednesday, and WPC also has a marginal risk
of excessive rainfall along and west of the Ohio River Wednesday.
Stay tuned for new details over the coming days. Expect high
temperatures reaching the 70s-80s in the lowlands and the 70s in the
mountains each day through Thursday.

Showers will remain possible Friday, but a cold front will likely
pass through the region Friday afternoon from west to east, bringing
drier air behind it. The pattern looks more tranquil and cooler
heading into next weekend with highs back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 AM Saturday...

Showers continue to move across the area this morning, with
periodic VIS restrictions occurring in rain and fog. A
disturbance passing over the area during the day will sustain
shower and scattered thunderstorm activity into tonight, while
visibilities continue to be impaired within any heavier showers
or storms. Ceilings are expected to deteriorate to MVFR at most
sites today, though some improvement may be possible this
afternoon. Flight conditions worsen again overnight as fog or
low stratus develop and scattered showers continue.

Light flow remains under 12kts out of the south to southeast
today, with 15-20kt gusts possible along the mountains this
afternoon and evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated
restrictions may vary from the forecast. Extent/duration of
restrictions due to fog or low stratus may vary tonight.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers, stratus, and/or fog Sunday
afternoon through early next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY/JLB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JLB