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000
FXUS61 KRNK 242230
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
630 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure builds in tonight behind a cold front. Temperatures
remain a few degrees either side of normal through the week. A
warm front moves north this weekend providing a chance for a few
mountain showers. Sunday through Tuesday look especially warm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 625 PM EDT Wednesday...

A weak surface convergence boundary remains situated over the
area from roughly Bluefield, WV to Danville, VA. Daytime heating
in addition to this weak convergence is allowing for the
development of some isolated showers heading into the evening
hours. These showers are expected to dissipate quickly around
sunset. Have made minor adjustments to hourly temperatures, dew
points, wind speeds/gusts and sky cover to better reflect the
current conditions and expected trends through the late evening.

As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

Clouds are clearing this afternoon with only a few rain showers
remaining over Southside Virginia and north-central North
Carolina. This rain is associated with the passage of a surface
front that is expected to continue east through tonight. Another
reinforcing front is current over the southern Ohio Valley and
will push across the area tonight, bringing a stronger push of
drier air. No precipitation is expected with this second front.


High pressure builds over the Great Lakes through Thursday and
will extend south over our region bringing abundant sunshine
and light winds for Thursday. High temperatures at or just
slightly below normal.

Temperatures tonight will be chilly in the 40s and possibly some
upper 30s for the mountains. Depending on if skies can clear and
winds can go calm, could have a few sheltered areas drop into
mid/lower 30s with the potential for isolated areas of frost.
However, confidence with this is rather low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Slight chance of mountain showers Friday
2: Dry and warming up into the weekend

During this forecast period, high pressure will be slowly moving
over the eastern Great Lakes and towards New England. For us, that
means we will see a wedge form on Thursday night into Friday,
keeping temperatures relatively cool. In addition, a warm front will
track just to our west, connected to a low pressure system in the
plains and upper Midwest. Consequently, a low chance of showers
exists for the mountains in far southwest VA and southern WV on
Friday. Rainfall will be extremely limited. On Saturday, the high
pressure causing the wedge will move offshore and away. Meanwhile a
ridge will begin to intensify pretty much from the Mason-Dixon line
south. Clouds will become more scarce, and southerly flow will warm
us back up considerably. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s across
the region on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend during early next
week.

2) The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase by late
Monday into Tuesday from an approaching cold front.

The Mid-Atlantic will be in the warm sector of a frontal system
near the upper MS valley by Sunday. Accordingly, a southerly
flow will erode the lingering wedge of high pressure east of the
Blue Ridge. A strong upper level ridge overhead and notable
warm air advection at the surface will boost temperatures above
normal to start the new week. The warmest day in this forecast
period occurs on Monday when high temperatures could reach the
mid 70s to the mid 80s, which is about ten to fifteen degrees
above normal for late April. As a consequence of this increasing
heat and a low pressure system approaching from the west, the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will climb by Monday
afternoon and evening in the mountains and eventually spread
eastward towards Tuesday. The timeframe with the greatest
chances for rain is Tuesday into Tuesday night, when the
frontal passage is progged to take place.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

Generally VFR across the region now that clouds have begun to
gradually clear. Some pockets of MVFR cigs still remaining over
the mountains, but should see this improve over the next few
hours.

Winds remain gusty through this evening from the northwest,
gusting into the 20kt to occasionally 25kts at times. Highest
winds will be in the mountains. Winds go light/calm overnight
and remain light through tomorrow.

VFR expected tonight through tomorrow outside of a chance of
some fog formation from BLF to LWB. Confidence is on the lower
side on potential fog formation, but still mentioned it for a
few hours near daybreak at LWB and BLF.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

A warm front approaches Friday, and although VFR conditions
remain, but could start to see sub-VFR toward LWB/BLF Friday
into Saturday. -SHRA looks unlikely outside of sprinkles during
this time for BLF. Sunday will be VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/DS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...PW/VFJ
AVIATION...BMG