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000
FNUS71 KRNK 161538
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for White Top RX...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1138 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A frontal boundary across the region will be the focus for
another chance of showers and storms today.

Radar and satellite were indicating isolated thunderstorm
already developing near the site at 11:30 AM.

The next low pressure system approaches the region by Wednesday.
The daily chance of showers and thunderstorms continues Wednesday
through Saturday.

Minimum RH today around 55 percent

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal until the
weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent early in the afternoon, increasing to
                    40 percent late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 2 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (28700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 to 32.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........38  58  76  65  36  86  95  80  91  89  84
Weather cov.....                            SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  40  40  30
Temp............58  58  59  60  62  63  63  64  64  64  64
RH..............68  73  78  73  69  59  57  55  57  60  63
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   2   5   6   6   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.5   4       7   10  10  11  11  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.3 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.6 4.8 4.0 3.0 3.4
Mixng wind dir..SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S
Mixng wind spd..2   2   3   6   7   7   7   7   8   9   9
LVORI...........4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   1
ADI.............2   2   6   20  24  26  28  28  29  28  32
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2
VRate mph-ft/1K.1   1   5   16  24  27  32  33  31  27  32

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent decreasing to 10 percent early in
                    the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 5 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 to 17.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........57     52     40     52     53     75
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....Rainshower NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
CWR.............20     10     10     10     10     10
Temp............63     61     59     58     58     57
RH..............63     70     71     71     64     55
20 ft wind......S 9    S 11   S 12   S 12   S 12   S 10
20 ft wind gust.14     17     18     18     18     16
Mix hgt (ft)....2400   600    600    600    600    700
Mixing wind.....S 8    SE 6   S 7    S 8    S 7    S 6
LVORI...........2      3      3      3      3      3
ADI.............17     5      6      7      6      5
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
VRate mph-ft/1K.19     4      4      5      4      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph
                    late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 3 to 8 mph increasing to southwest 14 to
                    18 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (83900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 55 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........86     93     85     74     74     71
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     10     20     20     20
Temp............57     57     60     63     66     67
RH..............52     57     61     53     46     45
20 ft wind......SW 8   S 11   S 10   S 13   SW 16  SW 17
20 ft wind gust.14     14     14     18     20     22
Mix hgt (ft)....600    600    1400   3800   5600   3800
Mixing wind......S 3    S 5    SW 14  SW 18  SW 17  SW 18
LVORI...........2      3      2      1      1      1
ADI.............3      5      21     49     55     51
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.2      3      19     70     96     72

$$
Forecaster...Silverman
Requested by...joshua bailey
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410959.1/RNK
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joshua.bailey2@usda.gov