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000
FXUS63 KSGF 130544
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1244 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather risk this
  afternoon mainly for areas west of Springfield. This is due
  to 20-30% and 20-30mph wind gusts.

- High confidence in dry weather and above normal temperatures
  this weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s.

- Thunderstorm chances return Monday night with severe
  thunderstorm chances on Tuesday. Confidence in severe
  thunderstorm timing and potential hazards remains low. Stay
  up on the forecast.

- Gusty winds will occur Monday and Tuesday with south wind
  gusts up to 45mph Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and
upper air analysis shows that a mid level ridge was in the
process of building east towards the area. A large cut off low
was located off the coast of California and this will be the
system that affects the area early next week. Surface high
pressure was located just west of the area with northwest winds
and clear skies occuring. Regional soundings and lack of clouds
continued to show a very dry airmass in place with afternoon RH
values in the 20-30% range as temps have reached the middle 60s.
Winds were gusty earlier this morning but continues to fall
this afternoon as the high moves in. Therefore not likely going
to reach Red Flag criteria this afternoon.

Tonight through Saturday: Surface high will slide south of the
area tonight with winds turning southerly. Therefore a sharp
drop in temps will occur this evening however a slow rise or
steady state of temps after midnight. NBM supports low temps in
the 40s for most areas however the typical colder valleys east
of Springfield may briefly drop into the upper 30s. HREF data
suggests high confidence in mostly clear skies overnight through
Saturday. 850mb temps increase dramatically Saturday into the
14-16C range which typically corresponds to high temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s based on climatology. Given the dry air
in place and typical high bias in model dewpoints, have gone
with the near lowest dewpoint guidance which drops humidity into
the 25 to 30 percent range across the area. Surface winds will
increase during the day west of Springfield with gusts of
25-30 mph. This will create an elevated fire danger threat with
a significant threat west of Springfield in the grasslands.
Conditions may be borderline for a Red Flag Warning out west
tomorrow however one limiting factor is that local fire
partners have provided feedback that grass green up is rapidly
occuring with a lower fire threat than previously. However
forested areas remain a concern. A weak mid level wave moves
through Saturday evening however given the dry air mainly some
mid level clouds will move through.

Sunday: Upper level closed low will be slowly moving through
California and Nevada. Ridging will continue with another very
warm day expected with 850mb temps in the 15-17C range. This
should support high temps in the lower to middle 80s which is
15-20 degrees above normal. See climate section for record
temperature potential. Winds look to be a little lighter on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Monday through Tuesday: Ensembles are in decent agreement that
the upper low will continue moving east into the Rockies on
Monday, albeit slowly. Therefore most of Monday will likely be
dry as the energy remains west of the area. Another warm day is
expected, even with clouds as high temps will reach the lower to
middle 80s. Surface low will begin to deepen across Kansas and
Nebraska Monday night into Tuesday with a trailing front into
Oklahoma. The trend over the last 24 hours has been to slow this
system down which is typical of closed lows. Therefore while
storms develop across Oklahoma Monday, they may not make it to
the area until late Monday night and could be on a weakening
trend. Of more concern is that the actual front may not move
through the area until Tuesday afternoon. NBM probs for 1000j/kg
of surface CAPE are in the 40-60% range as the front comes
through and given the strong wind fields aloft, severe storms
could occur in this environment which matches CIPS climatology
and CSU machine learning probs. Also, the latest Euro Extreme
Forecast Index shows a favorable CAPE/Shear combo across our
area therefore stay up on the latest SPC Severe Weather
Outlooks through the weekend. Depending on clouds/precip, high
temps may remain in the 70s.

The other component is the potential for very gusty non
thunderstorm winds given the deep surface low and daytime
mixing potential. Latest NBM data suggests greater than 50%
probs for at least 45mph wind gusts west of Springfield on
Tuesday. Sustained winds may be in the 25-30 mph range as well.

Wednesday: The area looks to remain in between systems with
temps likely remaining mild but dry.

Thursday through Friday: Ensemble variance increases to some
degree however there is sufficient data to suggest a cold front
moving through which will bring additional precip chances and
cooler temps for Friday into the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will occur across the area the day today and
beyond. Light winds will continue early this morning, then
southerly winds will increase and become gusty this morning
remaining gusty into the evening hours. Low level wind shear
be possible early this morning at KJLN and across the area this
evening into tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024


Record High Temperatures:

April 13:
KVIH: 86/2006

April 14:
KVIH: 87/2006
KUNO: 85/2006

April 15:
KJLN: 86/2006
KVIH: 84/1955
KUNO: 84/1967


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15:
KSGF: 63/2006

April 16:
KSGF: 66/1963

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Burchfield