899
FXUS64 KSJT 090736
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
236 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Low level moisture will quickly increase across the area through
the early morning hours. Several CAMs indicate isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of
the Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau shortly after
daybreak, with this activity tracking east through the morning
hours. Confidence remains low in this solution, but if storms do
develop, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Slight
chance PoPs were kept for this time frame to account for the
possibility.

A cold front is forecast to track south across the area today. Ahead
of the front, hot temperatures are forecast, with highs in the 90s.
Behind the front, gusty north winds and much cooler temperatures are
expected. Highs across the northern Big Country will be in the 70s,
with highs across the southern Big Country in the low to mid 80s.
Farther south, highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s,
although a few locations could top out in the upper 90s. These
highs, especially across central portions of the forecast area,
might be a bit too high, if the front is slightly faster than
currently forecast.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, east of the
dryline and south of the cold front. The extent of coverage this
afternoon will be dependent on how much, if any, convection develops
across the region this morning. At this point, have kept PoPs in the
slight chance to low end chance category, mainly confined to our
eastern counties. Any storms that develop will likely become severe,
with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards, although
a tornado is also possible. Most of the storms should be east of the
area by this evening. Expect overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Cooler temperatures in store Friday into the weekend with an
unsettled pattern.

On Friday an upper low will be over southern Nevada. This low will
move slowly east over the Four Corners area Saturday and Saturday
night. With a subtropical jet extending from the eastern
Pacific/Baja region across Texas into the Gulf Coast states, an
embedded disturbance or two will will track over the area during the
first half of the weekend. With a northeast breeze and increase in
cloud cover, temperatures will be cooler area wide Friday with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms will increase across our area Saturday and Saturday
night. Considerable cloud cover and the prospects for rain Saturday
will limit highs to the 70s.

The aforementioned upper low is progged to move east into western
Kansas by early Sunday night with a trough extending to its south.
Medium range models indicate that the low and trough will make slow
eastward progress on Monday. The approach of the upper low and
trough will bring additional chances of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and Sunday night, with a lingering chance on Monday. With
winds across our area shifting to the southeast and south,
temperatures Sunday will be warmer but still below normal in the
Concho Valley and southern parts of our area. May have a Pacific
front move east across much if not all of our area on Monday. Based
on indications from the 12Z medium range models, rain chances should
drop off Monday night and Tuesday, as the upper trough axis shifts
east of our area. A warming trend is indicated Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tuesday, and upper 80s to mid
90s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Stratus is forecast to develop at the southern 3 sites after 10Z,
resulting in MVFR ceilings. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may
develop near KSJT after 12Z, then move east through the morning
hours. Confidence remains low in this solution, so for now have
introduced a mention of VCSH at KSJT, KBBD, and KJCT. Otherwise,
expect a return of VFR conditions by mid to late morning. Expect
gusty west winds of 10 to 12 knots today, becoming north at 12 to
16 knots behind a cold front that will move through the area this
afternoon and into the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  60  78  59 /  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  95  61  82  61 /  10  10  20  20
Junction    97  64  84  62 /  20  10  20  20
Brownwood   87  60  78  59 /  30  20  10  10
Sweetwater  82  58  77  59 /  10  10  10  10
Ozona       95  63  80  62 /  20  10  30  20
Brady       90  63  78  61 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...Daniels