022
FXUS62 KTAE 291009
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
609 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Surface high pressure off the Carolinas will keep southeasterly
breezes in the forecast today with a gradual increase in low level
moisture. Some of the hi-res guidance is suggesting a very low
chance for an isolated shower in the Florida Panhandle into
southeastern Alabama later this afternoon. However, anemic forcing
and lack of deeper moisture is expected to keep rain chances below
20 percent for today. High temperatures are expected to reach the
mid 80s away from the coast with overnight lows mostly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A shortwave looks to move across the region on Tuesday. With MLCAPE
around or above 2000 J/kg and a little wind shear in place, we could
see a few thunderstorms attempt to become sub-severe.
Some gusty winds could be possible. Otherwise, expect scattered
showers on Tuesday as the shortwave moves eastward. By Wednesday
we`re on the backside of the shortwave with northerly flow inland,
before the sea breeze attempts to push north in the afternoon,
and lowering dew points. Mostly clear and dry conditions are
expected for Wednesday.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 80s with some
90s possibly sprinkled in on Wednesday. Overnight lows will
generally be in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Upper-level ridging will persist throughout the long term leading
to rather benign conditions across the region. On Saturday,
another shortwave looks to move across the southeast to our north.
Although, when compared to the one in the short term, this
shortwave will be lifting off to the northeast. Thus, it`s ability
to induce showers and storms across our region will be less than
that of the previous shortwave. PoPs look to generally remain
below 25% Saturday afternoon.

Expect warm temps throughout the long term, highs look to
generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows look to
generally be in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the period.
There could be some patchy fog near dawn on Tuesday around TLH, ECP,
and DHN, but confidence is not terribly high at the moment.
Southeasterly to southerly winds will increase somewhat by late
this morning for most areas with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible
until around sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Another surge of strong east to southeast breezes is expected
through sunrise this morning. Starting later this morning, pressure
gradients will begin to gradually relax. A small bubble of high
pressure will develop over the northeast and eastern Gulf on Tuesday
afternoon, then persist through Friday. This will bring mainly light
and gentle breezes for the second half of this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue today as
moisture levels gradually increase. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible over most of the area on Tuesday.
However, widespread wetting rains are not anticipated through at
least the middle of the week. Locally high dispersions remain a
concern across southeastern Alabama. When coupled with the recent
dry spell, this could lead to slightly elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon. Dispersions are forecast to remain high
for portions of the region on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Minor flooding continues along much of the Lower Suwannee River,
though the river is falling in a characteristically slow fashion.
The Flood Warning continues at Rock Bluff, Branford, and Manatee
Springs. Manatee Springs is forecast to be the last river forecast
point to fall below flood stage on Thursday morning.

No new or additional flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  30  10
Panama City   81  66  81  67 /   0  10  30   0
Dothan        85  63  85  65 /  10  10  50  10
Albany        85  63  86  64 /  10   0  50  10
Valdosta      85  64  88  65 /   0   0  30  10
Cross City    85  62  86  63 /   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  77  68  78  68 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Oliver