Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 260534
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1130 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

Mostly minor updates this evening. Clouds and showers are
dissipating as they move southeast out of the area and we lose
daytime heating. Winds are also on the decrease. However, some of
the favored cold mountain valleys should fall to near what they
were last night, so have lowered lows there about 5 to 10 degrees
to reflect this.  Coulston

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will reside over the region
for Thursday and Friday, resulting in very nice spring conditions
over the region. Afternoon highs will climb into the 70s and 80s.
However, another spring storm will move into the region over the
weekend, with showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, followed by
widespread rain and high mountain snow for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0630Z.

VFR conditions prevail with clear skies and light winds, as high
pressure sits over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The areal flood advisory continues for Meagher County and the
areal flood warning for Hill/Blaine counties continue. The water
is receding in most areas, expect in Blaine County where it is
mostly holding steady or receding very slowly.

The point flood warnings also continue for the Milk River near
Harlem. It will take several more days before the Milk River
falls below flood stage.

Afternoon temperatures in the 70s to near 80 degrees later this
week will cause snowmelt to increase out of the mountains, which
could impact nearby creeks/streams. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms are also expected over the weekend, with
the potential for a significant spring storm early next week.
This spring storm could produce more widespread flooding impacts
over the region. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018/
Tonight through Friday...An upper level disturbance is moving
through the region, producing a few scattered light showers. Most
of the showers will diminish by Midnight. Expect sunny skies and
warm temperatures to develop over the region for Thu/Fri as an
upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the region.

Saturday through Wednesday...The next upper level disturbance and
spring storm will move into the region late on Saturday and into
Sunday. There is the potential for thunderstorms head of the
steadier rain/snow. The heaviest precipitation is expected over
the Rocky Mountain Front and the Cut Bank area, where 1 to 2
inches of liquid precipitation is possible. Some accumulating
snow is possible, especially for elevations above 6000 feet by
Monday. Flood or snow highlights might be needed for portions of
the region for this event. Drier conditions with slightly below
normal temperatures are expected towards the middle portion of
next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  71  39  78 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  30  70  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  35  73  40  80 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  31  70  35  77 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  14  60  25  64 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  33  69  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  32  69  38  77 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  31  63  38  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Areal Flood Warnings continue for Hill and Blaine Counties until
further notice.

A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Milk River near Harlem
until further notice.

Areal Flood Advisory continues for Meagher County until further
notice.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


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