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000
FXUS63 KTOP 101954
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
254 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming breezy late tonight through Thursday

- Warming trend late this week with highs near record values Sunday

- Next meaningful chance (30-60%) for rain comes Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Mid-level trough is swinging through north TX early this afternoon
with its associated sfc low in the lower MS River valley. Northern
stream shortwave trough is noted over the Dakotas per water vapor
imagery at 19Z. Light rain from the southern system appears to be
skimming the southeastern corner of Anderson County based on radar
imagery, and should move out later this afternoon. A cold front
associated with the northern system is progged to move through the
area late tonight. Just ahead of that boundary, some of the CAMs
have been picking up on isolated showers in the late afternoon to
early evening. Sfc convergence doesn`t look too impressive, but
there may be enough low-level frontogenesis to produce some high-
based showers. That said, low-level dry air casts doubt on whether
rainfall reaches the ground so have limited any precip mention to
sprinkles during this time period. Northwesterly winds are then
expected to pick up overnight behind the front as the pressure
gradient tightens. These remain gusty through most of Thursday, not
decreasing until after sunset. Gusts of 25-35 mph plus drier low-
level air filtering into the area may make it difficult to manage
fires, but fuels have greened up enough across the area to preclude
the need for fire headlines. Fuels aside, HREF indicates the
probability of an RH/wind combination reaching red flag criteria is
generally less than 40% across the area. Otherwise, CAA Thursday
keeps highs relatively cooler in the 60s.

Heading into Friday and the weekend, upper ridging overhead favors
warming temperatures with highs surging into the 80s by Saturday.
Confidence is increasing in temperatures reaching the 90s on Sunday,
putting record highs in jeopardy.

The next upper trough over the western US looks to approach Monday,
bringing our next chance (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms.
Cluster analysis shows notable differences on the depth and timing
of that trough, so any finer details will need to be worked out as
we get closer to that time frame and better consensus is
reached.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions continue. Adjusted start time of gusts a bit
earlier, but overall north winds are expected to increase
following fropa late tonight with gusts 25-35 kt through
Thursday. There may be a brief, isolated shower or sprinkle this
evening as the front passes, but dry low-level air and high
cloud bases (7000-9000 ft) preclude mention in TAFs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

            Record High Temps           Forecast High Temps

April 14    92 in Topeka (2006)         91 in Topeka
            90 in Concordia (2002)      91 in Concordia

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Picha