757
FXUS64 KTSA 011551
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1051 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

As of mid morning a MCS continued to track eastward across South
Central/Southeast Oklahoma. Along the path of the MCS...marginal
instability remained mainly elevated...with the greater deep
layer shear occurring just west/southwest of Pittsburg and
Pushmataha counties. At the same time...low level moisture vectors
continued to stream low level moisture up into the region. Across
the rest of the CWA...a few isolated showers continued near the
Kansas border...while partly to mostly cloudy conditions were
common.

Through this afternoon...the MCS is expected to continue its east
to east-southeast push across Southeast Oklahoma and exit during
the mid afternoon hours. Thus...light to locally heavy rain
showers along with thunderstorm chances will remain forecast through
mid afternoon over these locations. Mainly elevated and marginal
shear values for the MCS to interact could allow for a couple
storms to become strong/marginally severe with hail/strong winds
the main threat. Thus...will increase PoPs across Southeast
Oklahoma from west to east through mid afternoon.

Since low/mid level flow across Southeast Oklahoma was and should
continue to be generally less than 30KT through this
afternoon...overall movement of the MCS looks to remains mainly
20-30 mph. In response...locally heavy rainfall with hourly
rainfall rates in excess of one inch per hour are capable within
the thunderstorm activity...creating localized flash flood
concerns.

Underneath the MCS temps should be slow to warm until mid
afternoon...while the rest of the CWA warms into the upper
70s/lower 80s underneath scattered afternoon cloud cover. For the
morning update...have adjusted PoPs/QPF/hourly Temps/Max Temps
across Southeast Oklahoma based on the movement of the MCS. The
rest of the forecast seems to be on track at this time.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Convection which develops to our west this afternoon and evening
is likely to organize into one or more convective clusters
overnight and once again translate to the east and southeast. The
heaviest precipitation is likely to remain well to our south
overnight, but some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
in our area, with the highest chances in southeast Oklahoma.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday into Thursday evening as a cold front pushes into and
across our area, but CAMs suggest that the NBM categorical pops
are too high, so will once again lower them somewhat.

Friday will see a relative lull in convection before shower and
storm chances increase again over the weekend as another frontal
boundary moves across the area. A stronger storm system may move
out into the plains early next week bringing a chance for more
vigorous convection early next week, but the details remain
unclear on this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish for
most terminals by 15Z this morning. Until that time, CIGs will
mostly be in the 5-8 kft range, after which skies will become
partly to mostly clear for the afternoon hours. Winds will become
southeasterly with a few gusts of 15-25 kts for most terminals.

Overnight low level wind shear will develop near or after
midnight. Another round of storms may move into the area from the
west during the late evening or overnight hours, but details are
unclear. The most likely area to see rain and thunder will be
eastern OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  66  78  59 /  20  40  70  60
FSM   85  65  78  64 /  20  20  60  70
MLC   83  66  78  62 /  70  60  60  70
BVO   82  63  77  55 /  30  40  70  60
FYV   80  63  75  59 /  20  20  70  70
BYV   81  65  77  60 /  20  10  70  70
MKO   82  64  76  60 /  20  40  70  70
MIO   78  64  75  58 /  20  20  70  70
F10   81  64  76  61 /  60  60  70  70
HHW   83  65  76  64 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06