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000
FXUS64 KTSA 222312
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
612 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

South winds will continue tonight, resulting in milder overnight
lows. Given the dry low level airmass, any areas that shelter
from winds will again be rather chilly, though not so much as
this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Further warming anticipated Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold
front. The boundary is expected to be near I-44 corridor just
before 00z, with isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms expected along the front late Tuesday afternoon,
mainly NW AR and far NE OK. Some expansion in coverage is
depicted by most guidance Tuesday night as the front slowly moves
south, before eventually stalling near the Red River early Wed
morning.

Frontal zone should remain fairly active Wed/Thu as it eventually
lifts north as a warm front in response to flow becoming more
southwesterly with time. For the most part convection should
remain elevated during this period, but a few strong or
marginally severe storms possible by Wed night into Thursday as
low level moisture profiles improve. The front will result in
cooler temps for a couple of days, and if precip remains
widespread enough and arrives early, Wed high temps could end up
cooler than forecast.

Moving toward the later part of the week into the weekend, the
pattern remains very active while likely becoming more conducive
to severe weather, just in time for the most climatologically
favored time of year. A strong initial upper low is forecast to
eject into the plains by Friday with continued expansion of the
warm sector from later Thursday into Friday. This looks to be
followed rather quickly by another strong system this weekend.
While specific timing of features remains in question, there is at
least some degree of potential for a multi-day severe weather
threat in the plains, with Friday and Saturday currently the
most favored days for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Will continue with a WS remark at all sites
from 05z-13z. VFR TAF elements will prevail
through the entire period at all sites, though
a cold front will push into NE OK after 21z, and
will include a windshift at KBVO at 22z. Further
south of the boundary, gustier winds in the morning
will begin to relax some during the afternoon as the
front draws closer. Will not include any precip mention
with this issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  81  54  69 /   0  10  20  50
FSM   47  80  59  72 /   0  10  30  40
MLC   53  79  59  72 /   0  10  30  50
BVO   51  79  49  68 /   0  10  10  40
FYV   49  78  52  70 /   0  20  30  40
BYV   51  77  51  69 /   0  30  20  20
MKO   52  78  57  69 /   0  10  30  50
MIO   52  76  48  69 /   0  20  10  30
F10   53  79  57  69 /   0  10  30  60
HHW   48  75  60  75 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...23