Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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414 FXUS63 KUNR 100316 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 916 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/isolated storms gradually ending tonight into Friday - Warmer temperatures expected through early next week - Dry for much of the weekend, then chances of showers/storms return late Sunday, continuing into the middle of next week && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Upper-level analysis shows an elongated trough stretching from the Great Lakes to the Four Corners, forming a separate low as it begins to split. Clearing across the northern CWA has allowed for some weak buoyancy to develop, and scattered showers have increased early this afternoon. With high pressure moving in from the north, surface winds are northerly 10-20 mph. Temperatures are warming into the 50s and 60s. A few lingering showers will be possible across the southwestern CWA tonight into Friday. Additionally, moist air and light winds may allow for some patchy fog across northeastern WY and the Black Hills late tonight into early Friday. The upper ridge will begin to dominate our weather pattern through the weekend, while the cut-off low lingers over the southwestern CONUS for a few days. Ensembles are in good agreement on warming temps through the weekend and into early next week, although temperature spreads increase Mon/Tues. Saturday will be dry, but chances for showers/storms return Sunday afternoon as the Four Corners low finally traverses the central plains. With low CAPE/shear on Sunday, severe threat looks low. On Monday, a shortwave trough will swing into the northern plains from Canada, bringing another round of showers/storms. WAA ahead of this trough could allow for increased instability/buoyancy, and with slightly better shear, would not rule out a strong to severe storm Monday afternoon/evening. Deterministic models show the trough lingering over the central US through the middle of next week, resulting in more showers/storms and cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 915 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for most locations through the TAF period. The exception will be for some local MVFR conditions over the BLKHLS until 12z. Otherwise, isolated showers are still possible through tomorrow morning. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Pojorlie AVIATION...Bunkers