652
FXUS63 KUNR 101114
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
514 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and mainly dry today.

- Chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms nearly every day
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

08Z analysis shows an upper trough extending from the Great Lakes
region to an upper low over the Four Corners region that is being
cut off from the flow aloft. An upper ridge is in place over the
Pacific Northwest and BC/Alberta in western Canada. An upper
trough is moving southeastward from Manitoba into western
Ontario/Minnesota, creating northwesterly flow aloft over the
forecast area.

With the upper ridge to the northwest of the forecast area,
warming temperatures are expected today through Monday. Mainly dry
weather is expected today, however cannot rule out a couple of
afternoon showers in the convergence zone over and near the
southern Black Hills this afternoon. The Four Corners upper low
will shift eastward into the central plains on Sunday and a weak
disturbance in the northwest flow aloft will enhance lift,
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms, beginning on
Sunday afternoon. With low CAPE/shear on Sunday, severe threat
looks low.

On Monday, a stronger shortwave trough will swing into the northern
plains from the Canadian prairie provinces, bringing better
chances for showers/storms. WAA ahead of this trough will lead to
increased instability/buoyancy, and with slightly better shear, a
few strong to severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening. Deterministic models show the trough lingering over the
central US through the middle of next week, resulting in chances
for showers/storms nearly every day next week, along with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued At 512 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

A few spotty showers are possible through 14z, mainly near the
Black Hills and SW SD. Otherwise, VFR conditions and dry weather
is expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10
AVIATION...SE