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000
FXUS63 KABR 191959
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds gusting 35 to 45 mph will slowly diminish this
  evening. Flurries will exit from west to east this evening, as
  well.

- The next chance of rain (20-50%) will be Monday/Monday night.

- Near to above average temperatures Sunday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The upper trough and strong northwest flow have kept the flurries
going today even as sfc temps have warmed into the upper 30s. Expect
the flurries and/or sprinkles to taper off through the evening from
west to east as winds also slowly diminish with weakening mixing and
H7 jet support.

High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight and Saturday
bringing drier air but still well-below normal temperatures. An
elongated upper trough persists through Saturday keeping H85 temps
in the negative single digits Celsius. Winds will remain out of the
northwest on Saturday but should be significantly lighter given the
lack of a sfc pressure gradient especially by afternoon.

The one thing to watch will be just how low the temperatures fall
tonight and Saturday night. The dry air near the sfc (dewpoints in
the teens) plus any clearing of the clouds could see temps fall
below forecast lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The long term portion of the forecast begins on Sunday with a
surface high pressure drifting south-southeast across the region
with a surface low and upper level trough approaching the area from
the west. The CWA will see increasing southerly winds, especially
along and west of the Missouri River where there is a 50-70 percent
chance sustained winds exceed 20 mph. The surface low pressure and
upper level trough will progress across the region Monday into
Tuesday, bringing a 20 to 50 percent chance of pcpn, mainly Monday
afternoon over the eastern half of the CWA.

A stronger storm system may track across the region toward the end
of the next work week and into the weekend. Depending on
deterministic model used system may produce a prolonged period of
showers, or mostly a passing shower with periods of dry conditions.
The grand ensemble suggests Thursday night through Friday night will
have the best potential of seeing pcpn, with the probability of
seeing two hundredth of inch at 35 to 65 percent. Due to timing
issues among models and ensembles, there is a significant spread for
temperatures over the CWA Thursday through Saturday. Possible highs
in the 60s and low 70s, or perhaps in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Northwest winds gusting up to 40 kts will persist through the
afternoon then slowly diminish this evening after sunset. VFR
conditions are expected through Saturday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise