Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 212035
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
335 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Evening Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

The combination of a surface trough across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico along with surface high pressure centered just offshore of
the Mid Atlantic states is producing a general easterly flow
through the low and mid levels with more of a southeast flow near
the surface. This pattern will continue to support a moist airmass
in the low to mid levels and will support higher rain chances
with some thunderstorm activity across our southeast and eastern
counties today. Expect the overall coverage to decrease overnight,
but then increase again southeast just before daybreak. Pops
Tuesday will generally be the same as today.

Through the short term period, low temperatures will remain in the
upper 60`s to around 70 degrees while high temperatures will
depend heavily on the coverage of precipitation. Highs will
continue to range from lower readings around 80 across the eastern
counties while readings will range from the mid to upper 80`s
across the western counties due to thinner cloud cover and a lower
coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity.

05

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Sunday.

Enhanced rain chances will continue on Tuesday as a disturbance
drifts across Southeast Alabama. POPs range from around 40 percent
in the Northwest to 65 percent in our southeastern counties. The
disturbance may be hard to detect by Wednesday and Thursday, but a
similar range and distribution of POPs seems reasonable as high
PWAT values remain in place.

Models continue to indicate the development of a large trough
encompassing the Southeast states and the Gulf of Mexico for
Friday through Sunday. This system has the potential to gain
subtropical characteristics with perhaps an area of surface low
pressure in the Gulf. Above normal rain chances are expected
during this period as the trough remains nearly stationary.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move to the
NW through central AL. Thunderstorms could move through KMGM and
KTOI through the afternoon...with any thunderstorm capable of MVFR
visibilities and ceilings. Otherwise...timing and coverage remains
uncertain...so only included VCTS at each TAF site through the
afternoon. Scattered showers are possible late tonight as
instability decreases...with enough low level moisture across the
state for MVFR visibilities through the early morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible again through the
afternoon tomorrow. VCTS was included to account for uncertainty
with timing and coverage.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist pattern is expected over the next seven days and should
result in daily rain chances. Patchy fog/low clouds will be
possible each morning particularly where rainfall occurs during
the prior afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  82  66  86  65 /  50  50  40  40  20
Anniston    65  81  66  85  66 /  50  60  40  50  20
Birmingham  67  84  68  88  68 /  50  50  40  40  20
Tuscaloosa  67  86  68  89  68 /  50  40  30  40  30
Calera      66  82  67  86  68 /  50  60  40  40  30
Auburn      66  78  66  82  67 /  70  70  50  60  30
Montgomery  67  83  69  87  69 /  60  60  40  60  30
Troy        67  82  68  85  68 /  70  70  50  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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