Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 171131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
731 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

High pressure is in store this weekend, but seasonally cold weather
and gusty winds will continue, especially on Saturday. Some
scattered snow showers will be possible Saturday morning, mainly in
the northern mountains which would be the only precipitation on an
otherwise dry weekend. The jury is still out on a potential low
pressure system that may have the makings of the fourth nor`easter
that New England has seen in the last few weeks with current trends
keeping the system largely south of the area for now.


As of 722 AM EDT Saturday...For the early morning update,
things look on track. Light snow showers are developing over
parts of Quebec province but visibilities are remaining
unrestricted and dew point depressions remain around 8-10
degrees over those areas, leading to the better confidence that
any snow showers that make it into the CWA shouldn`t have more
abundant moisture and squall like concerns.

Previous discussion...While a most of the weekend will be
dominated by high pressure, Saturday morning starts with strong
upper shortwave trough that digs into the region at daybreak
and moves quickly south of the CWA by mid afternoon. With this a
very cold airmass for this time of year moves in with
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Along with this
colder air a chance for snow showers to Saturday morning. While
across the northern half of the CWA, SBCAPE of 100-150 J/kg look
possible as indicated by 00z NAM-12km and model soundings
suggest convective depths extending up close to 700mb with
trough passage, QPF looks to be less than 0.15" and will limit
widespread snow squall activity. Though some flurries or a quick
snow shower is possible during the morning hours Saturday,
especially across northern VT. A possible snow squall isn`t
completely ruled out and will continued to monitored with any
potential increased moisture coming out of Canada this morning.

A strong jet will accompany the shortwave as well, and with decent
mixing expect gusty winds will continue much the day Saturday. Drier
air works in Saturday afternoon, bringing the shower potential to an
end and even allowing for some much missed sunshine by late in the
day. However, with gusty winds and temperatures only in the teens
and 20s, it will definitely be a cold day more reminiscent of
January in spite of any sunshine. Skies will clear and winds lessen
overnight Saturday night as high pressure builds across the region,
and this combined with nice fresh snowpack will make for a very cold
night indeed. Lows drop down into the single digits areawide, with
negative numbers likely in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks.
Even with the winds decreasing, look for higher elevations to see
wind chills in the negative teens.

Cold temperatures and northerly flow and dry conditions will
continue on Sunday with less cloud cover than Saturday. Look for
high temperatures to be not much better than Saturday with the
valleys only reaching the low 20s and other locations in the


As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet and unseasonably cold weather
is expected in the short term period. Split flow with prevail
across North America with our area under the influence of the
cold northern stream. N-NW flow at all levels will ensure a cold
dry flow as Canadian high pressure moves slowly toward the
North Country Sunday night. Hedged blended guidance low
temperatures down a bit below zero by Mon am in northern NY and
single digits above elsewhere under mostly clear skies. Brisk NW
flow aloft and potential for some upslope clouds may limit
radiational cooling from reaching its full potential despite
deep snow cover across the region. Cold northerly flow continues
on Monday with 925 mb temps maybe reaching -10 deg C keeping us
in the 20s for high temperatures under partly cloudy skies.
Should be another fairly cold night Monday night with light
winds, but again some chance of clouds around. Lows mainly in
the single digits. For this time of year we should be seeing
high temperatures in the lower 40s and low temperatures in the
mid 20s.


As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...It looks like mainly dry and
unseasonably cold weather will continue through the long term
period as high pressure over Canada continues to provide a
northerly flow to the region though it will moderate slightly as
we go through the week. Model consensus supports this solution
and keeps a nor`easter south and east of our area but we`ll
still keep an eye on it. Otherwise, despite a weak upper level
trof cold, dry weather should dominate though I can`t rule out a
flurry or snow shower in the long term. High temps in the 20s
Tue will slowly moderate into the 30s by Friday. Similarly, low
temps in the single digits Tuesday morning will moderate into
the teens and lower 20s by the end of the week. Again these
temps are still well below the normals of low 40s for highs and
mid 20s for lows at BTV.


Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions expected through the
period. Winds will be gusty through 00Z period across the
CWA out of the northwest with gusts in the 20-25 knot range.
Skies will remain largely VFR on Saturday but a quick shot of
snow is possible during the late morning/early afternoon hours
as a boundary pushes through the state with decent low level
instability. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions could be seen at
KSLK/KPBG/KMPV/KBTV as these convective snow showers push
through. Conditions will quickly trend back to VFR following
snow showers as drier air quickly filters in across the North


Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance




NEAR TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Verasamy is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.