Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270039
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
739 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Updated Synopsis...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 739 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

A clear sky and light winds will allow for areas of frost Friday
morning. Perfect weather is expected Friday with full sunshine,
light winds and afternoon temperatures in the 70s. The chances for
afternoon thunderstorms will gradually increase Sunday through
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Impacts in the short term  are generally limited to gusty winds this
afternoon out west and freeze/frost consideration Tonight. As an
upper level wave/500mb cold pool moves across the area today, the
deep mixing in the western counties will keep winds gusting into the
40 to 50 mph range this afternoon with sustained winds near between
30 and near 40 mph. Gusts should rapidly diminish around sunset, and
winds will go generally light o overnight  with clearing sky behind
the wave. The NAM is one of the colder (model) solutions overnight,
with temperatures across west central KS eventually  radiating out
to the 30-32 degree range within a larger backdrop of 33-38
degree lows across our area. We will likely have another Frost
advisory for much the area for late tonight and early Friday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Mid level ridge builds in over the area into the weekend, allowing
for a warmup to around 10 to 15 degrees above normal late April
afternoon highs for southwest KS. Forecast builder develops a few
token periods for low p[op thunderstorms chances, while best window
appears over south central KS counties Monday. Cannot rule out storms
Sunday with a lead wave. A Large trough is carved out with he ECMWF
over the great basin by days 5-7, setting up potential  early spring
winter wx over the northern or central plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 510 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

VFR for all airports through Friday. Strong shortwave with
associated cold front over SW KS currently will clear the region
rapidly this evening. Strong north winds will gust in the 30-35 kt
range for only a couple hours through sunset, then rapidly
diminish by midnight as high pressure arrives. All clouds will
clear tonight, and SKC is expected all day Friday. Excellent
flying conditions can be expected Friday, with no clouds and light
winds retaining a westerly component less than 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Fire weather conditions/risk will deteriorate this weekend and into
early next week as drier/lower relative humidity air descends on the
the High and Lower Plains on gusty southerly winds. Red Flag
conditions will become increasingly likely during this timeframe.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  75  42  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  32  74  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  33  74  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  35  74  42  80 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  36  75  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
P28  38  74  45  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
Friday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>088.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Turner
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Russell


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