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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 181121
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
521 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 147 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

We will have very warm temperatures today and Friday with high
temperatures running 10 to 12 degrees above average. For the
weekend, we will see slightly lower high temperatures and there
will be a slight chance for thunderstorms in the Sacramento
Mountains and Hudspeth County. For the first of next week, we will
continue our warm and dry weather with breezy afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A zonal flow (west to east) will keep us dry and very warm the
next couple of days. High temperatures both today and tomorrow
will approach record levels as they will run 10 to 12 degrees
above average. For the weekend, a weak upper level trough will
approach the region from the west, while at the surface, high
pressure in the Midwest will try and push moisture, via the
dryline, into at least the eastern part of the region.
Probabilistic guidance shows a very low chance (0 to 20%) that
the 40 degree dewpoint readings will reach even half way across
Hudspeth County. By Saturday morning the chances for the 40 degree
readings to push across Hudspeth County rise to 50 to 80% and
there is even some low chances (20 to 40%) that that moisture will
push into El Paso and most of Otero County. By Sunday the 50%
chance of the 40 degree dewpoint readings will push west of Las
Cruces. This east push of moisture, will be shallow and will only
be deep enough to give eastern Hudspeth County and parts of the
Sacramento Mountains a chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. The best chances for rain will be on Saturday as
the weak trough aloft moves across the region. Despite a better
push of moisture on Sunday, that push will again be shallow and
with little or no dynamics aloft, we will see the thunderstorm
chances confined to locations well east of us. High temperatures
this weekend will come off our near record highs, but will still
run a few degrees above average.

For the start of next week, a zonal flow aloft will push the
moisture to the east and keep it just outside our area. High
temperatures will creep 5 to 8 degrees above average. For Monday
and Tuesday, probabilistic guidance shows a very low chance (10
to 30%) of winds even reaching 20 mph. For Wednesday, a tightening
surface pressure gradient will give us better chances 40 to 60% of
seeing 20 mph, especially for locations east of the Rio Grande. As
is typical for April there is little or no chances for any
widespread rain for the next 10 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Our quiet, warm and dry weather pattern will continue today and
tonight. Our ceilings will be unlimited this morning and
afternoon, but we will see high clouds on the increase this
evening and may have some high ceilings of BKN250 through the
overnight hours. Like the last couple of days, we will see light
winds this morning, but by early afternoon we will see some low
end gusty winds from the west. Those low end gusty winds will drop
off a little before sunset and our surface winds will swing around
and come more out of the south or southeast for the overnight
hours.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Our quiet, but very dry conditions will continue today and Friday.
Min RH`s both days will be in the single digits in the lowlands
and near 10% in area mountains. For Saturday and Sunday, some
moisture will push into locations east of the Rio Grande. Min
RH`s west of the Rio Grande will range from 5 to 15% while east of
the river min RH`s will range from 15 to 30%. The winds today
through the weekend will stay well below critical levels. For the
start of next week our dry weather will continue with min RH`s of
5 to 10% in the lowlands and 10 to 20% in area mountains. The
winds will be breezy each afternoon, but they will stay below
critical levels. The vent rates will range from very good to
excellent for the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  90  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            85  52  84  53 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces               90  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               85  55  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               64  44  64  42 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    86  56  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              77  54  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   87  52  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                85  53  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       88  60  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                90  48  85  51 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             91  53  92  53 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               82  54  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   90  55  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             86  55  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           87  62  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            87  55  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    89  53  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 87  57  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                85  54  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  79  45  76  46 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                75  47  75  46 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 74  44  73  43 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  80  50  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                85  54  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                86  52  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             79  49  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   81  49  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    84  53  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  54  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  82  53  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   85  54  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  86  55  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           86  54  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               80  55  81  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice