Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 261053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Winds should generally be out
of the south at 5 to 15 mph through most of the day. Another cold
front is expected to plunge toward the region late this afternoon
and should arrive at the southeast New Mexico terminals first at
KCNM and KHOB around 24/23z and the west Texas terminals by
25/06z. North to northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusty are
expected behind this front tonight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A rapid warm-up is expected today ahead of another cold front that
will pass thru the nrn CWFA late Thur PM and late Thur night across
the srn areas. Brief post-frontal windy conditions can be expected
between 03Z-09Z Fri as isallobaric high of 5-9mb/3hr migrates
swd. Stronger winds are expected thru GDP Pass where isallobaric
accelerations are forecast to be maximized. There is a decent 85h
thermal gradient along 85h winds of 30kts. ATTP will take a more
conservative approach despite the usual/recent over-lauded machinations
of MOS at GDP for e wind cases. High temps on Fri will likely be
range bound within 75-80 in most areas. By Sat highs will warm up
3-5 degrees, se low-level flow and some high clouds will be inhibitive.
By Sun said se low-level flow will have returned enough moisture
for a modest dryline. GFS does show computed CAPES 1000-1400 J/KG
along 30-40kts of 0-6km shear, a few dryline storms will be
possible. More of the same Mon, but dryline will be a little
farther e with sw flow aloft, CAPES will higher due to better low-
level mstr. By Tue PM dryline will mix e of or very near ern
extent of CWFA. By Thur decent agreement that mid-level speed max
will be positioned across the area with dry air even farther e
followed by a cold front Thur evening. West of the dryline high
temps will be above normal with Mon probably the warmest day with
boughts of high winds in favored locations of the GDP Mtns.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concern will 1st increase across SE NM/GDP Mtns/Upper
Trans Pecos on Mon, then expand into most of the Trans Pecos/wrn PB
Tue and into most all areas Wed. Winds Mon-Wed are not expected to
be too strong, but deep mixing will support generally 15-25 mph type
winds, stronger in GDP Mtns as usual. Typically the occurrence of
critical fire weather rapidly ends in later half of Apr across the
PB and we have seen a decrease lately, but it will attempt to
make a return next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     80  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       86  50  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         82  57  79  56 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  85  52  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 82  50  71  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  45  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          82  48  71  45 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           82  51  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         82  51  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           85  51  79  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/



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