Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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477 FXUS63 KPAH 142259 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 559 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue today; can`t rule out a severe storm this afternoon. - Some lingering showers continue tonight into Wednesday, and then another system spreads additional showers and storms into the region Thursday through Friday. - Uncertainty exists regarding precip chances this weekend, but it is trending drier. - Temperatures will start off near to slightly below normal the next couple of days, then warm above normal this weekend as highs reach the mid 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 555 PM CDT TueMay 14 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Thunderstorms are growing a little stronger and better organized over Livingston County and vicinity. A few breaks in the overcast have allowed for better surface heating and about 800-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forming up across the area. Similar instability is forming ahead of a broken line of showers across SEMO. With modest deep layer shear but just a little directional low level shear invof the surface low will have to monitor for a stray severe storm or two this afternoon. Antecedent soil conditions will also make at least a few areas primed for flash flooding if they happen to get storms once again this afternoon. Mainly a corridor from about Evansville to Cairo, IL that saw repeated activity through the midday hours Tuesday. Wednesday looks a little drier although some wraparound showers and clouds appear possible in the eastern half of the CWA. Friday a quick moving shortwave moves overhead. GFS/NAM have us in a little more large scale ascent zone of the upper jet Friday where the ECMWF is a little flatter with the wave. Rain and thunderstorms look quite likely. The shear environment will be more favorable than today, and instability may be slightly larger. That will be the main ticket to any severe potential Friday is if we end up with slightly more than currently advertised MLCAPE a more organized severe threat may result. Heavy rainfall will be a watch item as well with the increasingly wet soil conditions and fairly deep column moisture. A front moves through behind this system and looks to mostly dry us out for the weekend. By Saturday highs look to climb back into the middle 80s. 12z deterministic and ensemble members are still in very poor agreement on the details, but the broader moisture return, trough positioning and climatology would suggest it be monitored for severe weather and heavy rain potential as well. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 553 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Scattered showers/storms remain possible in the vicinity of low pressure drifting across the terminals. Restricted cigs/vsbys can be expected with any storm. Activity should diminish with nightfall, or at least wane. The recent heavy rainfall may allow for some patchy fog or low cloud to develop overnight where skies clear or at least bases scatter. Winds will pick up toward daybreak, transitioning to an IFR cloud base before daytime heating increases that to MVFR. Scattered showers/storms are again possible tmrw, but mainly for eastern terminals (KEVV/KOWB). && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$