Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 261822
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
222 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A southern system grazes the area late today into Friday. Cold
fronts Friday night and Saturday. High pressure Sunday into mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

An opening upper level low will pass south and east of the
forecast area tonight. We are already seeing cirrus on the
increase ahead of this with the first radar echos crossing
eastern TN into southwestern VA. Expect precipitation to be
confined to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area
overnight, with the highest confidence of measurable rainfall
across the mountains where a tenth to a quarter of an inch is
expected. Nothing significant or concerning when it comes to
flood thread.

Light rain across the northern mountains should linger until
just after sunrise Friday before tapering off. Another weaker
upper trough crosses the Great Lakes Friday afternoon. Models
keep most precipitation associated with this feature north of
the forecast area, but did go with some slight chance to chance
POPs across our SE Ohio and northern WV zones as both GFS and
ECMWF show a decent vort max crossing this area Friday
afternoon.

Blended ECMWF MOS guidance into previous high and low forecasts,
resulting in only a degree or two change here and there, so
nothing significantly different from previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

Unsettled weather continues in the short term period as an upper
low, and several upper disturbances affect the area.
Precipitation will gradually taper off late Saturday night or
early Sunday, with enough cold air filtering into the region
that precipitation will turn over to snow across the higher
terrain. No accumulation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

High pressure will build across the area Sunday. May even see
areas of frost Monday morning across the area. Temperatures will
gradually warm as the week progresses, as upper ridging takes
hold across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Currently have some low to mid level cumulus across forecast
area, with cirrus beginning to thicken from south to north as an
upper level low crosses MS/AL. This feature will bring some
light rain to eastern TAF sites overnight. Could see some MVFR
to IFR in this rain and/or fog after the rain. Also expect MVFR
to IFR ceilings. Somewhat uncertain how dense fog may become due
to thick cloud cover. LAMP trends have been trending toward a
bit lower probabilities of IFR visibility so did not include it
for now, but do not have a lot of confidence in this right now.

Any visibility and ceiling restrictions will gradually improve
after sunrise Friday. Winds will be light and rather variable
through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions in rain and clouds
may vary. Fog could be more dense than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible Saturday into Saturday night following cold front
passage, mainly in the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ


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