Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
334 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

Each winter and early spring, The National Weather Service office
in Newport/Morehead City, NC issues a series of flood potential
outlooks. These outlooks estimate the potential for river
flooding across the Newport/Morehead City forecast office`s
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). The outlook is based on the
current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which
contribute to river flooding. These factors include, but are not
limited to recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and
snow water equivalent, stream flows, and expected future weather
conditions.

Historically for the Carolinas the river flood season begins in
early to mid January with the number of flood events increasing
through late winter with a peak in early to mid March...ending in
late April for the region. The forecast for normal river flooding
conditions indicates that the magnitude and number of events will
be typical.

Overall, a mix of above and below normal precipitation has fallen
in the area, and it looks like normal conditions are likely
heading into the heart of the spring season.

A table below summarizes precipitation and departure from normal
for the water year beginning October 1,2017.
(rainfall/departure from normal)

   Month              Greenville      New Bern      Cape Hatteras

------------------------------------------------------------------

  October             3.52/0.27      4.73/1.47      2.15/-3.23

  November            1.55/-1.57     0.42/-2.98     2.19/-2.76

  December            3.41/0.16      4.23/0.83      4.90/0.63
  January             3.41/1.55      5.06/1.04      8.60/3.36
  February          2.70/-0.65     1.35/-2.31     1.65/-2.37
  March to date       4.56/0.90      4.23/0.25      4.46/0.16

 Total precip         21.15/0.66     20.02/-1.70    23.95/-4.21

Streamflow values across the area are generally near normal, with
upstream reservoir levels near target pool levels. Soil moisture
conditions across Eastern NC are below to near normal.

Over the next five days, the area can expect near normal
precipitation...around one half inch of rainfall. The eight to
fourteen day outlook calls for cooler temperatures, and above
average precipitation.

Based on the above data, the river flood outlook through the
remainder of winter and into early spring is considered near
normal.

The next scheduled Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by
April 13th.



$$



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