Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
000
FNUS71 KAKQ 231313
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Cheroenhaka...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
913 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

...A widespread and soaking rain is expected Tuesday...

High pressure remains centered just off the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic coast today. Low pressure will track from the Tennessee
Valley through tonight, sliding E-NE along the east coast Tuesday
through Wednesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 12 mph.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......2500-4300 ft AGL increasing to 4400-4600 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 26 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............37  21  38  69  55  52  71  80
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................65  67  67  68  68  69  68  67
RH..................53  50  49  46  44  42  43  44
20 FT wind dir......E   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd......5   6   6   8   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.....10  15  15  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft).......2.5 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4
Transp wind dir.....SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.....18  23  24  24  23  24  24  26
LVORI...............3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................34  44  52  56  59  61  64  64
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
Haines index........5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....41  74  84  91  93  95  94  101

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain early
                    in the evening. Rain likely after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 10 mph.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Mixing height.......1600-3500 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1300 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....East 14 to 23 mph decreasing to 12 to 13 mph
                    early in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............89  93  94  92  91  94  94  95  96  98  99  100
Weather cov.........        CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type........        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov............
Temp................66  63  60  58  56  55  54  54  54  53  53  53
RH..................45  49  54  60  65  69  74  77  80  85  87  89
20 FT wind dir......E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd......7   6   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft).......3.5 2.7 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.....SE  E   E   SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.....23  23  15  17  15  14  14  15  15  14  13  12
LVORI...............1   2   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5
ADI.................56  29  22  19  17  13  13  13  13  12  11  10
Chc of pcpn (%).....10  10  40  40  40  40  70  70  70  70  70  70
Haines index........3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....71  53  24  24  18  14  11  8   5   5   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain until late
                    afternoon, then rain likely and slight chance
                    of thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............100    100    99     98     97     95
Weather cov.........DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type........RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov............                            S CHC  S CHC
Temp................53     55     58     61     63     63
RH..................92     91     86     81     75     78
20 ft wind..........E 7    E 7    E 9    E 10   E 9    E 8
20 ft wind gust.....15     15     20     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)........400    300    600    900    1100   1000
Transport wind......E 13   E 17   E 18   E 20   E 20   SE 20
LVORI...............6      5      4      3      3      3
ADI.................12     19     21     22     26     25
Chc of pcpn (%).....80     90     90     90     70     70
Haines index........3      2      2      2      2      2
VRate kt-ft/1000....4      5      10     14     18     17

$$
Forecaster...MONTEFUSCO
Requested by...Bobby Clontz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807446.0/AKQ
.EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.