Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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Spot Forecast for Sages Ridge Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
658 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on March 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Cool and dry conditions will continue today as high pressure
ridges in from the north. Some lower clouds may move onshore from
the waters and some high high clouds will stream over the area
from the southwest.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is Low to none.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 7 mph.
Max mixing hgt......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 17 mph.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (41118 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............50.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   20  14  18  14  10  11  10  10  9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............37  42  47  51  54  56  59  60  61  61
RH..............87  77  68  63  58  53  50  48  48  48
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  11  12  13  12  11  10  10  9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.4
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.16  17  15  15  14  13  12  10  12  12
Stability.......B   B   B   B   B   B   B   B   B   B
LVORI...........4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............17  32  39  48  48  49  46  43  50  48
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.11  25  31  38  38  40  37  35  41  39
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  PR  PR  FR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 15 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (5405 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Min ADI.............6.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........11  13  15  19  23  27  24  20  16  28  39  50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  56  52  50  48  46  44  43  42  41  41  41
RH..............52  59  67  71  74  77  80  83  86  88  89  90
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.NE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.12  13  14  15  15  14  14  14  13  13  14  13
Stability.......B   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   E
LVORI...........1   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
ADI.............42  6   6   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   8
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.34  6   6   7   7   7   7   6   5   6   13  12
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 12 mph shifting to the southeast
                    8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Poor (19035 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............24.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........50     53     58     50     28     27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............41     44     50     56     62     62
RH..............93     89     81     72     63     65
20 ft wind......N 4    N 4    NE 4   NE 4   E 3    SE 4
20 ft wind gust.6      7      7      6      6      7
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1100   1500   1900   2400   1800
Transport wind..NE 12  NE 12  NE 9   NE 8   SE 8   SE 9
Stability.......E      B      B      B      B      B
LVORI...........6      4      3      3      2      3
ADI.............8      17     17     19     24     21
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.12     13     13     15     19     16
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...Zouzias
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408354.0/ILM
.DELDT 03/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org


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