Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200853
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 20/1200 UTC THRU FEB 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...LARGE SCALE HEAVY RAIN / FLOOD EVENT...

...EASTERN PLAINS / MID-UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES / UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...

A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT SHOULD SPARK GREAT CONCERN OVER HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO COME INTO PLACE...WITH LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH, BLOCKED BY A 594
DECAMETER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC, ALLOWING FOR PROLONGED, ELONGATED
MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM THE CARIBBEAN BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. MOISTURE QUALITY LOOKS MORE LIKE MARCH OR APRIL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND TAPERING ONLY TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WOULD REPRESENT MAX VALUES FOR LATE FEBRUARY
PER GEFS M-CLIMATE DATA. EXPECT REPEATED WAVES OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...AND EMBEDDED INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED/THU IN SOME AREAS...RESULTING IN A WIDE SWATH
THAT WILL INDUCE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AND MAY OVERWHELM SOME MAIN
STEM RIVERS. ESPECIALLY CONCERNED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS / LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE GREATEST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AND
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHERE DEEP FROST DEPTH / FROZEN GROUND
AND SOME SNOW MELT WATER WILL EXACERBATE THE RUNOFF / FLOOD
SITUATION.

ALTHOUGH THE QPF WAS NOT OVERLY COMPLICATED ON THE LARGE SCALE
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DRIVING THE SITUATION, OF GROWING
CONCERN PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS THE INCREASED W-E SPREAD WITH THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WHERE THE CAMS (INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES MEANS) ARE
TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN LIGHT OF
(MOST LIKELY) SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. FOR DAY 1, WPC UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF, IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE QPF, AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAX QPF AXIS A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST THAN THE ENSEMBLE OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. THIS IDEA
REPRESENTS A RELATIVELY SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM CONTINUITY
(PREVIOUS FORECAST), AS GIVEN THE HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED PATTERN
(DEEP-LAYER S-SW FLOW) ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT IN A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THIS RESULTED IN A
CONTINUAL SWATH OF 1.0 TO 2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
FROM TEXAS TO MICHIGAN, WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS (AREAL-AVERAGE 3+
INCHES) FOCUSED FROM NORTHEAST TX-EASTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST AR AND
SOUTHERN MO, WHERE MODEST DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES. OVER THESE AREAS, PER THE MAJORITY
OF HIGH-RES CAMS, LOCALIZED 24 HOUR TOTALS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES ARE
LIKELY -- AND AS SUCH WPC WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK IN THE NEW DAY 1 ERO.


...ELSEWHERE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OUT WEST BENEATH THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH. THE SAME BLEND USED FOR THE EASTERN U.S. WAS APPLIED HERE
AS WELL. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO... SEE QPFHSD FOR
DETAILS.


DAYS 2/3...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO A REFORMING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR QPF ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING DAY 2. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF THE REFORMING TROUGH PROVIDES LIFT OVER
AN ARCTIC FRONT FOR QPF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. DURING DAY 3...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES INTO
THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...PROVIDING LIFT FOR QPF OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA RANGE IN CA...AS WELL AS THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST. THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO
THE TROUGH (ESPECIALLY DURING DAY 2)...BUT THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REFORMS DURING DAY 3.
IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES...THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 2...
THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...OFF THE COAST OF WA/OR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA
DURING DAY 2. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS FAIRLY
MODEST...AND THE BULK OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
REMAINS OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LIFT (AUGMENTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW) TO PRODUCE AREAS OF 0.10 TO 0.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER SOUTHWEST OR/NORTHWEST CA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTHWEST NV INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA RANGE IN CA.

FURTHER SOUTH...SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE REFORMING LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES DURING DAY 2. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...UPSLOPE FLOW IS
AUGMENTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDING
TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CO ROCKIES. MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS
NOT ROBUST (AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 0.25
INCHES)...BUT THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOCUS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CO INTO NORTHERN NM. THERE
WAS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SAN JUANS IN CO.

DAY 3...
THE SECOND PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDES MORE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER OR/CA DURING DAY 3. A 15 TO 20
KNOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS 0.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR INTO CENTRAL CA...AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES FOCUSED
ON THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. THERE WAS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR
0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
RANGE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
RANGE. THERE WAS ALSO ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.5O INCHES OF QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SAN GABRIEL AND SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN CA.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST STATES...MAINLY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DAY 3. WHILE MOISTURE IS NOT IN GREAT SUPPLY (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINS NEAR 0.25 INCHES)...UPSLOPE FLOW
FOCUSES THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR AXES OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AZ...THE SOUTHERN WASATCH IN UT...AS
WELL AS THE SAN JUAN RANGE IN CO.


...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 2. SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES CROSSES THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING
DAY 3. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD INTERACT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR QPF EACH DAY. WHILE THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ON DAY 2...THERE IS INCREASING MODEL SPREAD WITH
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT AFFECTS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 3. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED MORE CLOSELY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET.

DAY 2...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY ON DAY 2
REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW TRANSPORTS
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO EASTERN KS/EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHWEST IA
BEFORE 22/12Z. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT INTERACTING WITH
THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS. LOCAL 0.40 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN KS...PER THE MOST RECENT 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 3...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CROSSES THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES ON DAY 3. A 25 KNOT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TRANSPORTS 0.50 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHICH BECOMES LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY ACROSS MN/WI/UP OF MI. THE BEST LIFT OCCURS BETWEEN
23/00Z AND 23/06Z OVER EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WHERE AN AREA OF
0.25/0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED, THIS WAS SURROUNDED BY A MUCH
LARGER AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
SD ACROSS IA INTO MUCH OF THE UP OF MI.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN A FAST MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SEND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY OVER A SLOW MOVING FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING DAY 2. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL FEED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENING...HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE AREA RISING SLOWLY...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTH DURING DAY 3. AGAIN...DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD
FEED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT PRODUCES HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
DAYS 1 AND 3. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING DAY 2...SO FOR THE MOST
PART...THE WPC QPF FOLLOWED THAT MODEL BLEND,

DAY 2...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FAST MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RIDES OVER
A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO EAST
TX DURING DAY 2. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 35/45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT 1.50/1.75 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS NEAR FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN) ACROSS NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR KTYR OF SOUTH OF KM89 IN AR...AND THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO FUEL CONVECTION THAT PRODUCES AN AXIS
OF 3.50 TO 4.25 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN THESE LOCATIONS. THE AXIS IS
JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE FRONT SLOWS AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO IT. DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF A 170 KNOT JET STREAK EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND 850-300 MB MEAN
WINDS ALIGNING WITH THE PROPAGATION VECTORS COULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO DROP THIS FAR
SOUTH...RESULTING IN NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN THE
BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. BECAUSE OF THIS...A
MODERATE RISK WAS EXTENDED NORTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL AR FOR DAY 2.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO MEG...THEY INDICATED THAT THERE ARE
STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS NEAR FLOOD...AND WHILE THE QPF AMOUNTS
HERE ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS NORTHEAST TX OR SOUTH CENTRAL
AR...THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A
MODERATE RISK HERE.

THE MODERATE RISK IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA ON
DAY 2...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO FAR SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN
INTO SOUTHWEST OH. THERE WAS A GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR 1.00 TO 2.00
INCHES OF QPF HERE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN KY INTO
FAR SOUTHERN IL. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW
AS 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KY AND WESTERN
OH...HENCE THE PLACEMENT OF A SLIGHT RISK HERE FOR DAY 2.

DAY 3...
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CA
DEEPENS THE REFORMING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
STALL EARLY ON DAY 3...AND POSSIBLY RETURN AS THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD...BUT THERE WAS STILL SOME SPREAD
CONCERNING JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT WOULD GET. THE 00Z NAM
APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE FRONT...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
MODEST HEIGHT RISES. THERE WAS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET...AND THAT
PLACEMENT WAS USED AS AN AXIS FOR THE HIGHEST QPF ON DAY 3.

THE PERSISTENT 35/45 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUMP 1.25/1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST TX/FAR
SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR AND SOUTH CENTRAL MO. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST TX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AR...AND MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER
NORTHEAST ALONG THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE FRONT. AN AXIS OF
1.75 TO 2.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED ON THIS AXIS...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST TX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AR.
A SLIGHT RISK WAS PLACED HERE FOR DAY 3...TO COVER THE FLOOD
THREAT. A MODERATE RISK WAS CONSIDERED FOR THE AXIS OF THE MAXIMUM
QPF...AND PART OF THE THOUGHT PROCESS INCLUDED THE HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2 COULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SATURATED SOILS.

HOWEVER...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFOS FWD/SHV/LZK/SGF...WE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO ENSURE THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WOULD
INDEED SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR DAY 3. IF THE FRONTAL POSITION
IS BETTER ALIGNED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
IS OBSERVED OVER THE REGION DURING DAY 1...A MODERATE RISK COULD
BE ISSUED FOR DAY 3 ACROSS NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST AR/SOUTH CENTRAL
MO IN LATER FORECASTS.


HURLEY/HAYES


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


THIS DISCUSSION WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED-CASE FEB 26, 2018.  THE
LISTING OF ISOHYET POINTS CONTAINED BELOW WILL ALSO BE ELIMINATED
FROM THE PRODUCT FEB 26, 2018.  ISOHYET GRID INFORMATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED IN A VARIETY OF BINARY FORMATS AND MADE
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE WPC GIS PAGE.

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 397304 402304 407306 416304 419302 421298 424285 424280
      424273 423269 425266 429267 438265 445265 464264 467268
      471269 474267 477263 481237 479228 477223 477215 476210
      474205 472201 467198 462196 459192 455186 448179 445181
      442187 433203 427210 424215 423222 424227 422234 418234
      414235 408241 404244 400246 389243 379239 374237 372237
      367239 364241 359249 358255 359260 379289 384296 389302
 0.01 530175 530169 528164 526159 523157 517150 511144 504137
      500136 497136 496138 497144 501152 505156 507159 510163
      514164 520170 523174 528176 530175
 0.01 528721 525708 521697 517684 513671 503656 494643 492639
      489636 482634 479632 473633 466634 454637 450637 447640
      443644 441646 441653 440658 437667 435678 433690 433697
      434705 434717 434723 433727 430730 431735 426743 422751
      422758 422762 422770 421775 417788 414797 412805 408814
      402820 389833 378849 374855 368861 359874 348888 343895
      341898 337900 334896 329893 327891 326888 329887 335882
      340878 343875 348873 354866 361858 364854 366850 367847
      363847 356848 346853 342853 338852 330844 328842 324843
      318851 311856 309858 306858 298857 294857 291859 287866
      288880 289891 282896 284900 287903 293906 297908 300911
      302914 306914 316915 324917 329919 327922 323925 317926
      311926 308929 304931 299932 296930 293932 290940 287949
      275961 277972 277976 273980 266984 258988 251988 244985
      230990 232995 235999 244003 246007 248011 250020 255024
      259029 321019 326013 328009 326005 325000 326995 329992
      333991 354988 368980 382969 390963 397957 418933 424926
      430918 434916 437917 445923 452928 457934 459938 459945
      458957 455962 454966 450976 443999 441003 443005 453006
      460003 466000 484992 492975 496967 500956 507940 511930
      513925 514919 516888 516880 515875 515867 517863 522859
      526853 525837 527831 526825 526810 526797 525778 526772
      525765 524749 524741 524736 525729 526726 528721
 0.01 489836 487831 487828 485826 483822 482822 478820 475823
      477827 477830 478835 479837 481841 484841 488838 489836
 0.01 477157 478152 476149 475146 473145 470143 468142 466142
      466145 467150 469152 470155 472156 473159 475159 477157
 0.01 450112 447106 444102 441098 440095 437095 432095 428091
      424091 426096 427101 423102 420102 416106 413104 413100
      413096 412094 409089 405088 404083 403079 404075 409071
      411070 409065 410063 414066 413061 409059 406053 403050
      406049 410045 410039 407035 401035 391038 386040 382046
      381051 382056 384058 384062 379062 368060 365061 364065
      364067 365070 369073 372079 373084 373087 376089 382091
      385095 389091 390088 394087 401090 403093 404097 404102
      402104 394111 389113 384117 382122 383127 393122 402127
      409129 412124 415123 418124 421129 425133 428138 433148
      436148 438146 441142 439136 437131 433127 431120 435114
      436111 438110 442115 445116 450112
 0.01 392059 391058 390058 388059 389060 391060 392059
 0.01 376751 374748 370747 364752 360755 355757 352759 346760
      341764 350767 352775 355775 359772 365767 370761 375753
      376751
 0.01 372053 372050 369050 367052 363052 361054 359054 356055
      357058 359058 363056 365054 368055 370055 372053
 0.01 363818 363812 360809 356810 353813 348820 342827 337833
      333837 333841 336845 339846 345846 348843 355838 359835
      361832 362827 362821 363818
 0.01 344089 345084 344082 342080 339080 335081 332080 329078
      325078 317077 310078 304080 297082 293085 289089 289093
      290096 292098 296099 302098 309096 314094 320095 326094
      329093 332094 332099 335101 341102 340097 339094 341091
      344089
 0.01 338060 337057 336055 332054 329054 327053 325053 323055
      321057 319061 319063 319065 321065 323063 325061 328060
      332061 335061 338060
 0.01 330874 328872 327870 326869 326868 324867 323868 321868
      319869 318870 318873 319874 320875 320877 321879 322881
      323883 325881 325880 327878 328876 330874
 0.01 308841 307831 302825 294820 289814 286810 288806 281802
      277799 275797 270789 265782 262778 260778 258783 259789
      261793 261798 255799 252801 252805 258804 264804 267806
      273810 281825 293837 301842 307844 308841
 0.01 262852 261845 260840 255830 249822 244814 240803 237799
      236804 236808 237814 240818 241823 244835 248847 252857
      257857 260857 261854 262852
 0.25 513707 513697 511687 508682 503678 496671 491664 486661
      482660 474662 455658 453664 454673 454683 454691 444710
      442715 443720 442724 439728 438731 442734 441740 434749
      433756 433765 432782 428793 424803 419813 414824 408834
      402841 373874 360890 346906 331925 317938 286964 281990
      284994 290995 300998 305000 311000 315997 319993 334982
      339980 346978 351981 358979 366973 373967 387953 395945
      402936 416918 422910 427902 438882 443870 448858 450853
      450843 450836 453828 462808 466796 469783 474755 475747
      476740 479725 482720 484719 486720 488725 490732 489747
      492753 497753 504746 508737 512722 513707
 0.25 469240 467233 466224 465215 464213 460211 454212 450211
      448213 440224 433238 429243 425249 420252 417254 418259
      422258 427256 434257 440256 451252 457249 462246 469240
 0.25 255002 253001 251000 249999 247999 246998 244997 243998
      244998 245000 246000 247001 248002 249002 251003 253003
      255003 255002
 0.50 478706 477699 474696 471696 465697 453707 451711 451717
      451723 449726 453730 452735 450739 446741 441748 439760
      438771 436781 433792 429800 423815 418825 413833 404846
      394858 381870 369883 359895 349909 339922 333928 327935
      316946 306957 294968 290977 291982 293985 308992 312992
      317990 324986 335977 343973 349973 353976 357976 360974
      365970 377959 388947 394940 400932 409920 414913 418906
      427889 432880 436871 442854 446834 450825 454816 457807
      461796 462787 462780 462774 463762 466753 466746 466738
      467729 475718 477712 478706
 0.50 453243 454240 453240 451240 449240 448241 447242 445243
      444245 445246 446246 447246 448246 450244 452244 453243
 0.50 440246 441244 441242 440240 439239 437240 435242 434244
      434245 435247 435248 437248 438248 439246 440246
 1.00 449794 447783 445789 445796 440800 434802 431807 428814
      422827 417837 410847 403856 394865 386873 377880 369888
      354907 341926 332935 324943 316952 310962 308969 308975
      312979 316982 323981 328977 337972 348966 358962 360964
      364964 369961 377953 392934 398925 404912 412901 417891
      429869 434856 438843 441829 446816 448805 449794
 1.50 444810 440806 435806 433811 431816 429824 426829 421837
      408855 401862 393872 384879 377884 369892 363901 360905
      356910 350918 344926 336934 328942 321949 316959 314964
      313971 315976 321977 330973 348963 357957 364951 369949
      375950 381943 381938 384932 387929 390924 396915 403908
      411891 421872 428861 430855 432850 435838 437823 444810
 2.00 430840 430833 426834 421840 411855 405862 400869 390883
      384889 376892 372894 370894 367898 365902 344928 338935
      332941 326947 321954 317962 316967 317973 321974 325973
      333969 347960 361950 381922 402894 413880 422865 425859
      427853 430840
 3.00 375918 374913 371914 364918 358920 355923 350928 337939
      331945 326952 321960 321964 323964 327956 330952 332952
      334956 332960 330963 329966 330967 343958 356947 360944
      362941 366933 375918

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 529215 530207 529201 529196 528193 524190 521187 516189
      510188 506190 498193 490197 483202 477207 477210 479211
      485212 487213 490216 492221 492226 490231 487235 484232
      479230 475230 471233 468234 465233 460231 444235 439236
      436235 435232 437230 441227 456216 455213 450212 445210
      444208 445205 453179 457168 459159 461154 463149 462143
      454136 450138 447141 444143 440142 436140 435146 439158
      444165 445172 442176 426181 426178 428175 431172 432169
      429164 427158 426153 423148 419147 415148 413152 410158
      410162 411163 403175 402183 400187 397191 394194 390195
      386193 377186 367182 364181 362184 364186 366190 371193
      379200 395214 401220 405223 408224 408227 406234 404239
      404243 405245 407246 408250 402256 405261 410262 413262
      412267 413274 415278 428291 433294 437297 447301 463291
      470288 479285 485281 488280 488278 486272 485266 485260
      490259 493262 498265 500269 506273 508272 508269 510260
      509253 508246 511241 524227 529215
 0.01 503694 503687 502681 501675 499671 496662 494656 492648
      487643 481639 478637 474639 471642 467644 465646 461648
      456649 454650 453648 455641 456635 454633 451629 448629
      445632 443637 436654 433660 430669 425687 415722 413731
      410739 409755 396767 393766 389766 387765 388762 389758
      395743 396739 397732 395724 387725 382731 380741 379745
      379751 377760 377765 376770 375780 375787 370788 362798
      356805 351809 338817 330822 323827 320827 316830 313832
      313837 314841 317843 323847 327850 327856 322861 312871
      296876 291882 289891 289902 289907 287911 280914 272919
      266923 262929 257935 254938 253942 252945 252950 257954
      268962 272967 272972 270976 266982 262990 262000 266006
      272012 278016 285019 289020 293021 312021 317021 321019
      323018 325021 326023 328025 332025 338023 347020 350021
      348024 348028 351029 354027 358020 377994 383988 388984
      395981 403978 409975 414970 423959 428952 431943 432939
      432933 426926 419921 417919 413918 408919 406922 405926
      402928 400926 393922 389925 389929 387931 384933 380938
      377945 375948 372952 365952 362953 357954 354955 352956
      351954 357948 362943 367936 371930 374922 382906 390892
      401880 404873 408867 417856 422850 427843 440830 448818
      451815 454811 457803 473773 477766 482759 484751 487745
      494725 498717 500708 503700 503694
 0.01 457685 456677 454671 453666 452663 450664 446673 444683
      440692 436700 433708 432716 433718 436718 441711 446704
      451696 454693 456687 457685
 0.01 444111 444108 444106 444104 444103 442103 441103 440103
      439105 437105 435107 435109 435110 437110 438110 440111
      442111 443111 444111
 0.01 414071 414066 412063 412061 408060 401059 395056 385049
      380046 374046 360049 352055 338054 333051 327053 328058
      331062 333064 337065 342070 336073 336075 339076 341080
      339082 339086 337091 337096 342098 342094 344092 350088
      357089 360092 363092 373087 383091 385095 389091 396083
      403072 406070 409073 414071
 0.01 343180 345169 343166 339168 332164 329161 324160 320157
      315156 310155 307157 311159 314163 316166 321167 328172
      333174 336178 337181 341181 343180
 0.01 350081 351079 352077 351076 349075 347075 345076 345079
      347081 348083 350081 350081
 0.01 278803 278799 275798 270796 258794 254790 250794 249797
      247798 245798 244795 241797 241801 241807 242813 242819
      242823 243826 244829 247830 249824 250818 252812 252809
      254808 260805 267803 272803 278803
 0.25 435789 434786 432783 428782 425784 421792 419800 417807
      413805 405804 398800 392798 389796 384796 378801 373806
      365816 359820 352825 348830 346835 347840 347849 344858
      338870 330883 326888 321894 311905 307911 303916 295926
      289941 282954 279960 277969 275976 274981 277983 281984
      284986 286989 287993 290994 292998 293003 293009 293012
      296014 303016 307015 311013 312010 312005 310997 313989
      317983 323977 332968 341957 357933 366922 374909 382897
      389883 397870 403857 411842 419831 427818 430810 432802
      435789
 0.25 395963 392956 390957 387960 383965 378970 373976 369981
      368986 371988 377985 382979 386974 389968 391968 394965
      395963
 0.25 381081 382074 382068 378065 375063 370061 367061 368066
      371069 373073 374078 377082 380083 381081
 0.25 383056 383054 382054 381052 379052 377052 376051 374050
      372052 371052 372053 374053 375054 377055 379056 381057
      382057 383056
 0.25 362069 363067 363065 362065 361063 359063 357064 357065
      356067 357068 358069 360070 362070 362069
 0.25 358972 355970 353969 352970 349971 347974 345976 343978
      342980 342984 344986 348985 350985 353982 354980 355978
      356974 358972
 0.50 406827 403823 396823 392821 388817 386815 384815 381819
      374829 367838 363849 362856 358861 351868 342875 335884
      322901 315911 309919 301927 296937 290946 285956 282961
      280967 282972 286975 290980 292985 296997 299010 301012
      304011 305009 304005 303003 303999 304992 308987 313984
      319977 326969 341952 354934 367915 379895 390875 395865
      400853 404839 406832 406827
 0.50 387804 388801 387799 386799 385801 383802 381804 381805
      380806 379807 378809 378810 378811 379812 380812 381811
      382811 383809 384809 385807 385806 387804 387804
 0.50 379078 380076 380074 380073 379071 378070 378069 376068
      375067 374066 373066 372066 373067 374068 374070 375071
      376073 377076 377078 378078 379078 379078
 0.50 355835 356832 355830 354830 353832 352833 351834 351835
      351837 352838 353837 354837 355835 355835
 1.00 395846 395840 393837 389840 386841 382843 379847 374854
      364867 350879 345885 340892 335900 330906 317917 307930
      290960 292970 297977 297981 300985 306982 314978 319973
      330960 336952 341945 351932 361918 370902 379886 387870
      392857 395846
 1.50 384866 384860 381859 374861 365872 359876 355881 347893
      331917 326922 322923 319925 315931 308934 304939 304944
      302948 298954 295960 294962 295966 301966 305978 317971
      322968 327962 343938 352927 356921 360914 367900 370894
      373887 379875 382870 384866
 2.00 374875 375871 373867 369871 361879 355890 348899 342908
      335918 321936 317939 312942 307945 303949 303955 307958
      306965 312966 319965 323965 330956 342936 350928 356919
      360907 365894 374875
 3.00 354916 354909 353906 351908 344915 337922 332931 329936
      328941 322949 324954 329954 332949 333943 339936 346928
      352920 354916

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 501201 500196 498196 494198 491199 487201 483204 481206
      483210 487211 490209 494207 497205 500202 501201
 0.01 493248 493243 493239 493235 492232 488228 480226 469232
      464231 460225 458219 455215 451212 444210 440206 432204
      426203 423202 422200 423198 426193 424188 424183 426180
      431175 423146 429118 419116 419112 421112 426111 434112
      439111 451107 455103 455093 447091 440092 437090 431089
      426086 424087 424091 427096 426098 421100 417101 415099
      411098 409095 409086 411078 415070 416066 416059 416055
      415052 410047 404046 363050 357052 354053 353056 357060
      359062 358065 356067 361072 367075 370077 370082 368087
      366090 359098 352109 348110 345114 345121 347127 346133
      347139 350145 353146 356145 361141 367137 374137 378138
      382139 379141 377141 373142 372146 364152 357156 360161
      365163 372165 376164 379158 383153 384161 385169 386179
      389185 391191 386188 379186 376183 363180 356179 351181
      349184 349188 352192 365199 377206 384210 392213 396216
      401218 406220 408223 407226 402226 398224 392225 385223
      383226 384228 388232 394236 398241 389242 383238 376237
      375240 376242 381247 384249 386252 389264 391268 394271
      400271 403268 408265 413267 426268 434269 441271 449274
      455272 458269 461268 462265 457256 459253 462253 467253
      472252 480254 484255 489252 493248
 0.01 505895 505890 503886 501880 497870 494865 489855 484851
      481851 478849 475842 471835 467829 465826 462826 457825
      450831 446846 445855 443861 441864 439867 436869 431870
      428868 428864 426858 427854 429831 430818 429798 427791
      427781 427773 425770 426765 427748 427729 428709 426699
      424694 422690 418686 412685 400692 393699 388709 376737
      372744 368745 367748 363766 356775 351784 338808 345811
      344818 345829 343838 338854 333869 325879 320883 318890
      316895 313900 307901 302905 299910 296910 295907 292899
      288893 287892 285896 281903 279910 280916 293917 285925
      266936 261940 259945 268956 274958 277960 275964 269969
      261972 258976 257978 259982 263983 268986 273989 267993
      262995 259000 260009 265011 274012 279012 283014 301017
      309019 313019 315022 319026 323027 329026 336025 349022
      354020 359016 362015 365012 367010 370010 377024 381026
      386027 395029 406035 412036 416031 418026 421024 425023
      429020 432015 443007 448004 453001 457996 461989 469974
      474969 479962 483952 487947 490945 493944 496940 497931
      501914 503903 505895
 0.01 448158 447153 445149 442144 441141 439136 436133 435138
      435145 434150 436155 441157 446158 448158
 0.01 421131 421126 420121 418119 415118 413120 409120 406122
      407124 405128 401128 398129 396131 397136 399138 402139
      407140 413139 417136 421131
 0.01 392105 392103 393101 392098 392096 390095 389095 389096
      387097 386097 385099 385100 384101 383104 384106 386107
      387108 389108 391107 392105
 0.01 345182 347172 343165 334163 327160 319157 313156 313161
      317166 322171 329175 336178 341180 343183 345182
 0.01 287808 285802 284796 275795 270796 266795 257799 247804
      244809 243813 244816 247813 249808 250806 252805 265803
      274806 280807 285807 287808
 0.25 467917 467900 464899 463903 463913 460914 457912 453906
      450899 448891 447889 446891 443894 442897 439904 436911
      435918 437923 445933 451937 454944 456945 459943 462937
      465930 467922 467917
 0.25 432239 432236 430236 429235 427235 425235 423236 422236
      421236 419237 419238 421240 422241 424242 426242 428242
      429240 430240 432239 432239
 0.25 419771 419759 416749 414744 412741 404740 401739 397739
      393743 390751 390760 382772 378781 373787 371792 373800
      375808 373815 370817 367825 364834 358841 352852 347866
      345873 340881 334897 333900 334902 331908 323919 319926
      316933 308948 303959 300967 296971 292977 290982 291987
      293991 292997 293003 296006 306011 315013 322011 327006
      334003 340999 346993 350988 355984 359978 360974 362973
      369971 375966 381961 386952 388946 389942 391940 396936
      400929 401925 400920 401912 403904 405892 409877 411869
      412859 413852 410844 409838 409831 410819 415806 418790
      419771
 0.25 424938 424935 424933 423931 423930 421929 419929 418931
      418933 419935 419937 419938 421940 423941 424940 424938
      424938
 0.25 401206 399203 396200 388196 384193 380191 371188 365185
      361184 358183 355184 356187 363191 372196 378202 385207
      395211 400210 401206
 0.25 394082 394077 390076 383076 381069 378067 375066 374069
      376073 377082 381083 381089 378090 374096 373098 375099
      378098 381095 383092 387086 393083 394082
 0.25 381124 381122 379122 377123 377124 375125 375126 374127
      373129 374131 376130 377130 378129 379128 380126 381124
 0.25 369124 368122 366121 365120 363119 361120 361121 362123
      363123 364124 366125 368125 369124
 0.25 356120 355118 354117 352116 352117 352119 352120 354120
      356120 356120
 0.25 342173 344171 343169 343168 341167 339168 338168 337168
      335168 334169 335170 337171 338172 339172 340173 342173
      342173
 0.50 413779 413772 412767 403767 401767 398770 393779 388785
      385786 381785 376789 375792 375796 378803 380810 384810
      386813 386820 386826 384830 381832 377831 373832 371835
      368842 366845 363848 357853 355857 356859 360853 365852
      367856 364864 360870 353881 357882 358885 352892 349894
      346897 340904 336910 333917 341921 321948 317953 312957
      308969 303975 301978 301983 310980 312984 312986 309987
      304990 300996 298002 306005 313007 319008 322006 329002
      336996 340990 340985 348974 352966 357959 363952 369946
      377934 385922 389916 393908 400889 405874 407866 406863
      403861 398861 396862 393860 393853 395844 399833 405817
      410804 413779
 0.50 393205 392204 391202 390201 389201 387200 386199 384198
      382197 380199 381202 382202 383203 385204 386205 387205
      388206 390206 391206 392206 393205
 1.00 406799 406796 406794 407792 406789 405788 403788 401789
      401790 400792 400793 399795 398796 398798 398800 398802
      398805 398807 400809 401808 403807 403806 404804 405804
      405801 406799 406799
 1.00 397883 397878 393878 388885 383891 378893 375893 372892
      371890 373886 373879 375871 378864 379860 376859 373868
      370875 368884 365892 363896 365899 359913 348925 343930
      339934 321960 318962 319966 321970 325972 337966 350956
      358945 362938 368931 376920 381914 385907 387898 392892
      395888 397883
 1.00 324999 325997 325995 325992 324991 322991 321992 321993
      319994 319996 318999 318000 319001 319003 320003 322003
      323001 324999 324999
 1.50 373907 374905 374902 374900 373899 371899 370900 370902
      370905 370907 371909 371910 372909 373908 373907
 1.50 369918 365916 361920 354925 346932 339941 333952 330957
      329960 331962 336962 341958 348951 354939 361931 368920
      369918
 2.00 352934 352933 350934 348936 348939 348938 350937 351936
      352935 352934
 2.00 346945 346943 345942 343943 341945 341946 340947 339948
      338949 337951 337952 337953 339952 340952 341951 342949
      343949 344947 345947 346945

$$




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